Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 24 April 2025

In the week ending 23 April 2025, low-pressure systems and troughs brought rainfall to northern, eastern, and western regions of the country. High-pressure systems kept much of the remainder of Australia largely dry.

• The Northern Tropics, including Cape York Peninsula and the far north of the Northern Territory saw rainfall of between 5-200 millimetres of rainfall, while parts of northern Western Australia recorded between 5-100 millimetres.
• Rainfall totals of between 5-150 millimetres were also recorded across coastal areas of southern New South Wales and eastern Victoria. In contrast, southern Queensland, northern New South Wales and Tasmania were relatively dry, with between 5-25 millimetres of rainfall observed over the period.
• In southern and central Western Australia, between 5-50 millimetres of rainfall was recorded, with up to 100mm recorded in some isolated areas.
• Little to no rainfall was observed across much of the remainder of the country

Cropping regions were largely dry, with the exception of parts of Western Australia:

• Western Australia cropping regions received between 5-50 millimetres.
• Cropping regions in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia saw little to no rainfall over the period, with exceptions in northern Queensland where up to 25 millimetres of rainfall occurred.
• Little to no rainfall across most eastern cropping regions is likely to contribute to a drawdown in soil moisture and allow for the resumption of the harvest of remaining summer crops.

Rainfall for the week ending 23 April 2025

Over the 8 days to 1 May 2025, low-pressure systems and cold fronts are expected to bring rainfall to northern and south-eastern Australia.

• Falls of between 10-100 millimetres are likely for much of the northern tropics, including the north of the Northern Territory and northern Queensland, while northern Western Australia is forecast to remain dry.
• In the southeast, between 10-100 millimetres of rainfall is forecast for southern Queensland and much of New South Wales and Victoria, while Tasmania is expected to receive 10-50 millimetres with lower rainfall totals in the east.
• High-pressure systems are expected to keep most central and western regions of the country relatively dry, with 1-10 millimetres of rainfall expected.

Rainfall totals across cropping regions over the coming week are forecast to be low in the west, but higher in the east.

• Rainfall totals of between 5-50 millimetres are expected in New South Wales and Victoria, with southern Queensland expected to receive up to 25 millimetres of rainfall.
• In contrast, Western Australia, South Australia, and northern Queensland are expected to receive little to no rainfall.
• If realised, the lack of autumn rainfall will continue to present a downside risk to the timely planting of winter crops particularly in areas with low stored soil moisture.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 24 April to 1 May 2025

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) climate drivers are currently neutral and having minimal influence on Australian rainfall. The IOD is likely to remain neutral over the coming months. Additionally, the ENSO is likely to remain neutral until August. The Southern Annual Mode (SAM) is currently positive but is likely to return to neutral in May. This suggests that climate drivers will have little impact on Australian rainfall over the coming months.

The most recent rainfall outlook for May 2025 provided by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that much of Australia, is likely to see below median rainfall.

• The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate model indicates a 75% chance of May rainfall totals between 5-100 millimetres across parts of the south, including southern Western Australia and Victoria, and parts of South Australia. Tasmania is expected to see as much as 200 millimetres.
• Eastern Australia, including southeast Queensland and eastern New South Wales are likely to see between 5-50 millimetres of rainfall. In northeastern Queensland, rainfall totals of up to 200 millimetres are expected in some coastal regions.
• Lower rainfall totals are expected across western, central and northern Australia, with much of Western Australia, Northern Territory, South Australia, and western Queensland likely to see little to no rainfall.
• Across cropping regions, there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals of between 5-25 millimetres across most cropping regions. If realised, these rainfall totals would be considered below average for this time of year. A lack of sufficient rainfall in May is likely to result in an increased disconnect between upper- and lower-layer soil moisture. This may reduce opportunities to plant winter crops under ideal conditions, particularly in some southern growing regions.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring in May 2025

The rainfall outlook for May to July 2025 indicates an increased probability of below median rainfall across most of Australia, including the Northern Territory, Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, and southwest Western Australia. In contrast, parts of western Western Australia and Tasmania are expected to see median to slightly above median rainfall.

Across cropping regions, the chance of receiving above median rainfall is between 35–55% across Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia, with South Australia and Victoria having a 40–55% chance of above median rainfall.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring May 2025 to July 2025

The rainfall outlook for May through to July 2025 suggests a 75% chance of receiving rainfall totals of between 100–600 millimetres across southwest Western Australia, Tasmania, and alpine areas of New South Wales and Victoria. Between 50–200 millimetres of rainfall are forecast across much of southern Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. In northern and central Australia, little to no rainfall is forecast over the period.

In cropping regions, there is a 75% chance of receiving between 100-200 millimetres in the south, including Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. In Queensland, falls of 10-100 millimetres are expected. These falls are likely to support soil moisture and pasture growth in winter cropping regions.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring May 2025 to July 2025