Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 10 April 2025

In the week ending 9 April 2025, low-pressure systems and troughs brought rainfall to northern, eastern, and southwest regions of the country. High-pressure systems kept much of the remainder of Australia largely dry.

• Elevated rainfall totals continued in much of northern Australia, including Queensland (10-200 millimetres), the Northern Territory and northern Western Australia (5-100 millimetres).
• Rainfall totals of between 5-100 millimetres were also recorded across northern New South Wales, Tasmania, and southwestern Western Australia.
• Little to no rainfall was observed in remaining southern and central areas, including much of South Australia, Victoria, southern New South Wales, and central Australia.

Rainfall was received in some cropping regions of Australia, particularly the western and northern regions, while relatively little was received in the south.

• In Queensland, rainfall totals of 0-100 millimetres were recorded, with lower rainfall totals in the south, while northern New South Wales saw between 5-50 millimetres of rainfall. This is expected to see an improvement in stored soil moisture but is likely to lead to delays to the harvesting of remaining summer crops.
• Meanwhile, parts of Western Australia received 0-50 millimetres of rainfall. Cropping regions in southern New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia saw little to no rainfall over the period.

Rainfall for the week ending 9 April 2025

Over the 8 days to 17 April 2025, low-pressure systems are expected to bring rainfall to all parts of Australia.

• Falls of between 10-100 millimetres are likely for much of northern tropics, including the north of the Northern Territory and northern Queensland, with northern Western Australia expected to see between 10-50 millimetres.
• Southern regions of Western Australia and Tasmania are both expected to receive 15-50 millimetres.
• Coastal regions of southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales are forecast to receive 5-50 millimetres of rainfall.
• High-pressure systems are expected to keep central and remaining southern regions relatively dry, with 1-10 millimetres of rainfall expected.

Rainfall totals across cropping regions over the coming week are forecast to be low in the east and higher in the west.

• Rainfall totals of between 10-50 millimetres are expected in Western Australia
• In contrast, remaining cropping regions are expected to receive 1-10 millimetres of rainfall.
• If realised, these low rainfall totals across Queensland and northern New South Wales are likely to support the drying down of saturated soils and support the resumption of harvesting of summer crop and planting of winter crops in coming weeks.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 10 April to 17 April 2025

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) climate drivers are currently neutral and having minimal influence on Australian rainfall. The IOD is likely to remain neutral over the coming months. Additionally, the ENSO is likely to remain neutral until August, suggesting climate drivers will also have little impact on Australian rainfall over the coming months.

The most recent rainfall outlook for May 2025 provided by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that much of northern Australia, and parts of the east and south are likely to see below median rainfall.

• The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate model indicates a 75% chance of May rainfall totals between 5-100 millimetres across parts of the south, including southern Western Australia and Victoria. Tasmania is expected to see as much as 200 millimetres.
• Eastern Australia, including southeast Queensland and eastern New South Wales are likely to see between 5-50 millimetres of rainfall. In northeastern Queensland, rainfall totals of up to 200 millimetres are expected in some coastal regions.
• Lower rainfall totals are expected across western, central and northern Australia, with much of Western Australia, Northern Territory, South Australia, and western Queensland likely to see little to no rainfall.
• Across cropping regions, there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals of between 5-25 millimetres across most cropping regions. If realised, these rainfall totals would be considered below average for this time of year. A lack of sufficient rainfall in May is likely to result in an increased disconnect between upper- and lower-layer soil moisture. This may reduce opportunities to plant winter crops under ideal conditions, particularly in some southern growing regions.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring in May 2025

The rainfall outlook for May to July 2025 indicates an increased probability of above median rainfall across much of Western Australia. In contrast, much of the north and parts of the southeast are showing an increased likelihood of receiving below median rainfall.

Across cropping regions, the chance of receiving above median rainfall is between 45–55% across much of Queensland and New South Wales, with Western Australia, South Australia, and Victoria generally having a 35–55% chance of above median rainfall.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring April 2025 to June 2025

The rainfall outlook for May through to July 2025 suggests a 75% chance of receiving rainfall totals of between 100–600 millimetres across southwest Western Australia, Tasmania, and alpine areas of New South Wales and Victoria. Between 50–200 millimetres of rainfall are forecast across much of southern Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. In northern and central Australia, little to no rainfall is forecast over the period.

In cropping regions, there is a 75% chance of receiving between 100-200 millimetres in the south, including Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. In Queensland, falls of 10-100 millimetres are expected. These falls are likely to support soil moisture and pasture growth in winter cropping regions

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring May 2025 to July 2025