Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 17 April 2025

In the week ending 16 April 2025, low-pressure systems and troughs brought rainfall to northern, eastern, and western regions of the country. High-pressure systems kept much of the remainder of Australia largely dry.

• The Northern Tropics, including Cape York Peninsula and the far north of the Northern Territory saw rainfall of between 5-300 millimetres of rainfall, while parts of northern Western Australia recorded between 5-100 millimetres.
• Rainfall totals of between 5-150 millimetres were also recorded across coastal areas of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, as well as southwest Western Australia. In Tasmania, up to 50 millimetres of rainfall was recorded over the period.
• Little to no rainfall was observed across much of the remainder of the country

Cropping regions were largely dry, with the exception of Western Australia:

• Large areas of southern Western Australia received between 5-150 millimetres, with higher rainfall totals in southeast regions.
• Cropping regions in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia saw little to no rainfall over the period.
• Little to no rainfall across most eastern cropping regions is likely to contribute to a drawdown in soil moisture and allow for the resumption of the harvest of remaining summer crops.

Rainfall for the week ending 16 April 2025

Over the 8 days to 24 April 2025, low-pressure systems and Tropical Cyclone (TC) Errol are expected to bring rainfall to western, northern and south-eastern Australia.

• Falls of between 10-100 millimetres are likely for much of the northern tropics, including the north of the Northern Territory, northern Queensland, and northern Western Australia.
  • Southern regions of Western Australia are also expected to receive between 10- 100 millimetres of rainfall.
• The eastern and southern margins of New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia, as well as much of Tasmania are expected to receive falls of between 5-50 millimetres.
• High-pressure systems are expected to keep most central and eastern regions of the country relatively dry, with 1-10 millimetres of rainfall expected.

Rainfall totals across cropping regions over the coming week are forecast to be low in the east, but higher in the west.

• Rainfall totals of between 5-50 millimetres are expected in Western Australia
• In contrast, remaining cropping regions are expected to receive little to no rainfall, will falls of between 5-15 millimetres expected in Victoria, South Australia and parts of southern New South Wales.
• If realised, these low rainfall totals across Queensland and northern New South Wales are likely to support the uninterrupted competing of summer crop of harvest. However, the lack of autumn rainfall continues to present a downside risk to the timely planting of winter crops particularly in areas with low stored soil moisture.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 17 April to 24 April 2025

Crop production is affected by long-term trends in average rainfall and temperature, interannual climate variability, shocks during specific growth stages, and extreme weather events. Some crops are more tolerant than others to certain types of stresses, and at each growth stage, different types of stresses affect crop species in different ways.

Precipitation anomalies and outlooks presented below indicate the current and expected future production conditions for major grain and oilseed producing countries (responsible for over 80% of global crop production). This is an important input to assessing the global grain supply outlook.

Rainfall in March 2025 was variable across the world’s major grain- and oilseed-producing regions:

• In the southern hemisphere, precipitation was below average across most of Brazil and parts of Argentina. Above average precipitation occurred in parts of southeast Asia, including much of Indonesia, southern Africa and north-eastern Australia. March precipitation was generally average across remaining major southern hemisphere grain- and oilseed-producing regions.
• In the northern hemisphere, precipitation was below average across scattered areas of the United States, parts of northern and south-eastern Europe, and across parts of southern China. Precipitation was above average in the north of the United States, central China and parts of central Europe. March precipitation was generally average across remaining major northern hemisphere grain- and oilseed-producing regions.

Global precipitation percentiles, March 2025

As of 28 March 2025, global production conditions were generally favourable for rice and maize, but variable for soybeans and wheat:

• Wheat – Conditions are highly variable in major northern hemisphere growing regions, with winter wheat for harvest in 2025–26 emerging early from dormancy due to warm than condition with dryness negatively impacting yield potential across part of the European Union and the United States, as well as much of Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United Kingdom.
• Maize – Conditions are mixed in the southern hemisphere with some downturns in production expected in parts of northern Brazil and Argentina, while sowing is underway in the northern hemisphere under generally favourable conditions.
• Rice – Conditions are generally favourable for the harvest and planting of wet and dry season rice across most of Southeast Asia, Indonesia and the Americas.
• Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, harvest is progressing in Brazil under mostly favourable to exceptional conditions. Recent rainfall has improved crop conditions in Argentina.

Crop conditions, AMIS countries, 28 March 2025

The global climate outlook for May 2025 to July 2025 indicates that mixed rainfall conditions are expected for the world’s major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions. Outlooks and potential production impacts for the major grain and oilseed producing countries are presented in the following table.

Rainfall outlook and potential impact on the future state of production conditions, May-July 2025