Australian researchers are peering into the future to prepare for tomorrow’s biggest biosecurity risks.
The Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA) has developed forecasting models that analyse changing climates and international trade flows to determine which pests will hit Australia hardest over the coming decades.
The CEBRA team analysed border interception data on the brown marmorated stink bug, spongy moth, Asian honeybee, giant African snails and khapra beetles to estimate how many goods consignments they could contaminate.
The researchers have developed global interactive maps showing the likely exposure of pests over time depending on different climate change scenarios and its likely impacts on international trade patterns.
Deputy Secretary of Biosecurity, Operations and Compliance Justine Saunders said the project is a breakthrough for readying our biosecurity system for the future.
“This project will help inform our threat prioritisation, border screening processes, post-border surveillance and eradication activities,” Ms Saunders said.
“The forecasting model can be expanded to predict risks associated with human movement and assess threats from multiple species at once.
“Global macro trends are exacerbating the risk posed by pests and diseases.
“To prepare for these threats, it is critical to understand what impacts may occur and which sectors are likely to be affected if a post-border detection occurred.”
Ms Saunders said the projects highlight the department’s continuing commitment to protecting our agriculture, environment and economy.
To find out more about the project’s methodology and findings, view Dr James Camac and Professor Tom Kompas’ presentation at the 2024 CEBRA Webinar Series here: CEBRA YouTube Channel.
The full report is now available here: 21B_final_report.pdf (unimelb.edu.au)
