Australian farmers are exposed to a high level of climate variability. In recent decades Australia has been subject to a number of severe and wide-spread drought events, which have had significant impacts on farmers and regional communities.
ABARES drought research includes measurement of effects of drought on farm businesses, and the development of related drought impact indicators. This includes current work related to the Drought Early Warning System <link to page> (DEWS) project and the Climate Services for Agriculture tool.
ABARES considers the impacts of prevailing and forecast seasonal conditions, via its regular agricultural monitoring and forecasting publications. For the latest information see the Agricultural Outlook, the Weekly Australia Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, and ABARES farm survey forecasts.
ABARES research also supports the Future Drought Fund through the development of indicators to measure the long-run vulnerability and resilience of Australian farms, communities and regions to drought.
Research reports
The Drought Early Warning System project: Progress report
Published: 23 April 2024
The Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) project was established in April 2022 by the Department. The project was established in response to reviews of the 2018–2019 and 2019–2020 drought events, which identified a need to develop new drought indicators and generally improve the Australian government’s drought monitoring and forecasting capability. This report details progress of the first stage of the DEWS project to the end of June 2023, including the development of an initial protype.
Defining drought from the perspective of Australian farmers
Published: 15 February 2022
This study examines drought from the perspective of farm businesses in order to develop new outcome-based drought indicators. Farmer drought self-assessment data are used to identify factors influencing farmer perceptions of drought beyond seasonal weather conditions. The results suggest farmers have updated their perception of drought over time to account for long-term shifts in the Australian climate. ABARES farmpredict model is then applied to develop an objective outcome-based drought indicator for Australian farms. This indicator measures the effects of seasonal weather conditions on farm profits accounting for both production and price impacts.
Measuring drought risk
Published: 11 November 2020
The Measuring drought risk report presents a methodology for measuring the effect of drought on the profits of farms. The report also presents results showing how drought risk varies across different farm types and regions. The results show that cropping farms face more drought risk than livestock farms, with regions in the more marginal areas of the cropping zone facing the highest drought risk. The report also presents trends in drought risk over time, reflecting the effects of new farm technologies and other structural changes. The results indicate that drought risk has increased since 1989, due partly to a shift towards cropping activity and away from sheep.
New insights on the effects of drought and climate variability on Australian farms
Published: 18 December 2019
The current drought across much of eastern Australia has demonstrated the dramatic effects that climate variability can have on farm businesses and households. The drought has also renewed longstanding discussions around the emerging effects of climate change on agriculture, and how governments can best help manage climate risk.
This Insights article provides some insight into these issues by examining the effects of recent climate variability on Australian farms.
Forecasting national grain stocks in times of drought
Published: 20 November 2019
The ongoing drought of 2018 and 2019 has highlighted the importance of providing well-grounded and reliable public information about the amount of grain likely to be available for domestic consumption over the coming year. As drought raised domestic grain prices during 2018 and the first half of 2019, intensive livestock and food manufacturing industries began to talk to me about the prospect of importing grain to secure supply.
ABARES revised its forecasts of national barley and wheat stocks for 2019–20 as part of the quarterly Agricultural commodities report, and these forecasts were published in the June 2019 edition. This report explains how ABARES revised its grain stocks forecasts for 2019–20, and put in place a process that can be used to forecast grain consumption and stocks in future drought years.
Drought impacts on broadacre and dairy farms in South-Eastern Australia 2018
Published: 19 December 2018
Interim results from ABARES annual surveys of broadacre and dairy farms confirm that average farm financial performance in South-Eastern Australia will worsen significantly in 2018-19 relative to the previous year, but not to the levels experienced during the 2002-03 and 2006-07 droughts. The impacts of the drought on farm financial performance will be variable however, largely in line with regional differences in the severity of rainfall deficiencies.
Analysis of 2018 drought
Published: 26 October 2018
This brief is based on a presentation by ABARES’ Executive Director to the National Drought Summit in October 2018 describing the effects of the current drought on Australian agriculture. The brief summarises current livestock market conditions, the extent of rainfall deficiencies, and the effects on crop production and farm incomes. The climate information in Figures 1 and 2 was presented to the Drought Summit by the Bureau of Meteorology.