Key issues
- For the week ending 15 June 2022, low-pressure systems and associated cold fronts brought rainfall to western and southern parts of the country, while high-pressure systems were the dominant climate feature across remaining parts of Australia bringing clear, dry and colder than normal conditions.
- Dry conditions across New South Wales and Queensland would have been a welcome reprieve for many growers, with soil moisture levels above average to well above average. Further dry conditions and clear, sunny skies will be needed across most regions over the coming weeks to allow field access for harvesting of summer crops and planting of winter crops to resume. If wet conditions return to northern cropping regions over the coming weeks, many growers are likely to fallow fields over winter and plant a larger area to summer crops later in the year. Most growers have completed their winter planting programs across cropping regions of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, with previous rainfall supporting the establishment and development of crops. Rainfall across Western Australian cropping regions has provided a much-needed boost to soil moisture levels, where dry conditions have persisted over recent weeks.
- Below average rainfall globally during May is likely to result in lower-than-expected wheat production potential in the United States, the European Union, and parts of Canada. Further, the conflict in Ukraine has generated additional levels of uncertainty around wheat, corn and sunflower production for 2022. Below average rainfall and above average temperatures in recent months have also negatively affected corn and soybean production across parts of Argentina and Brazil. Global production conditions have deteriorated compared to those used to formulate ABARES forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in its June 2022 edition of the Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production is likely to be lower than that forecast in June.
- Over the 8-days to 23 June 2022, a cold front moving across southern Australia is expected to bring moderate rainfall to parts of south-western and south-eastern Australia. Meanwhile, high pressure systems are forecast to be the dominant climate feature across much of the country, resulting in clear, dry conditions.
- Water storage in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 195 gigalitres (GL) between 8 June 2022 and 15 June 2022. The current volume of water held in storage is 22,139 GL, which represents 88 of total capacity. This is 44% or 6,729 GL more than at the same time last year.
- Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $21 per ML on 3 June 2022 to $19 per ML on 10 June 2022. Prices are lower in the Murrumbidgee and regions above the Barmah choke due to the binding of the Murrumbidgee export limit and Barmah choke trade constraint.
Climate
For the week ending 15 June 2022, low-pressure systems and associated cold fronts brought rainfall to western and southern parts of the country, while high-pressure systems were the dominant climate feature across remaining parts of Australia bringing clear, dry and colder than normal conditions.
Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across alpine areas of New South Wales and Victoria, isolated parts of northern Queensland, southern Victoria, the south-west of Western Australia and parts of Tasmania. Rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded in isolated parts of the south-west of Western Australia, as well as western Tasmania. Remaining parts of Australia received little to no rainfall.
In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded in isolated parts of South Australia and most of Western Australia. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and remaining parts of South Australia.
Dry conditions across New South Wales and Queensland would have been a welcome reprieve for many growers, with soil moisture levels above average to well above average. Further dry conditions and clear, sunny skies will be needed across most regions over the coming weeks to allow field access for harvesting of summer crops and planting of winter crops to resume. If wet conditions return to northern cropping regions over the coming weeks, many growers are likely to fallow fields over winter and plant a larger area to summer crops later in the year. Most growers have completed their winter planting programs across cropping regions of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, with previous rainfall supporting the establishment and development of crops. Rainfall across Western Australian cropping regions has provided a much-needed boost to soil moisture levels, where dry conditions have persisted over recent weeks.
Rainfall for the week ending 15 June 2022
Crop production is affected by long-term trends in average rainfall and temperature, interannual climate variability, shocks during specific growth stages, and extreme weather events (IPCC 2012). Some crops are more tolerant than others to certain types of stresses, and at each growth stage, different types of stresses affect each crop species in different ways.
The precipitation anomalies and outlooks presented here give an indication of the current and future state of production conditions for the major grain and oilseed producing countries which are responsible for over 80% of global production. This is an important input to assessing the global grain supply outlook.
May precipitation percentiles and current production conditions
As of the end of May 2022, rainfall was mixed for the world’s major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions.
In the northern hemisphere, precipitation was below average in south-western and central United States, across much of the European Union, eastern China, Ukraine and parts of Kazakhstan. Precipitation was above average for north-eastern United States, central Canada, southern India, southern China and parts of western Russia. Precipitation was close to average across the remainder of the major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions in the northern hemisphere.
In the southern hemisphere, May precipitation was below average for Argentina, as well as much of Brazil. Precipitation was above average for parts of South Africa, the far south of Brazil and much of eastern Australia. Precipitation was close to average across the remainder of major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions in the southern hemisphere.
Global precipitation percentiles, May 2022
As at 28 May 2022 global production conditions were mixed for the production of wheat, corn, rice and soybean.
In the northern hemisphere production conditions for wheat have been mixed. Climatic conditions have been favourable for wheat development in the Russian Federation and the United Kingdom. Production conditions were mixed for the European Union, Canada and the United States due to dryness in some areas and excessive moisture in others. Flooding along the Yellow River in China last year delayed and reduced sowing of winter wheat in autumn, which is expected to negatively impact production. The conflict in Ukraine is expected to restrict access to inputs and limit field access, which has generated additional levels of uncertainty for the wheat production outlook.
In Argentina, harvesting of early planted corn is continuing with reduced yields expected due to earlier hot and dry weather. Conditions of the late-planted crop remain favourable. In Brazil, conditions are mixed for the summer-planted crop as a lack of rain in the central-west and south-east regions is likely to impact yields for later sown crops. In South Africa and Mexico harvesting is ongoing under favourable conditions. In the United States, Canada and the European Union sowing is progressing slower than usual due to cool and/or wet weather. In China and Russia growing conditions are favourable of the spring-planted crop. In Ukraine, sowing of corn is progressing despite the uncertainties of the ongoing war.
In India, harvesting of the Rabi rice crop is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In China, conditions are favourable for both single-season rice and early-season rice. In the Philippines and Thailand, harvesting of dry-season rice is underway. Yields in the Philippines are average thus far, however yields have been affected by damaging rains in Visayas and pest infestations in Mindanao. While in Thailand, harvested area has increased since last year. Winter-spring rice in northern Vietnam is in the grain development growth stages under favourable conditions, while harvesting is underway in the south with increased yields from last year.
Harvesting of soybean is progressing for both the early-planted crop and the late-planted crop in Argentina. Dry conditions throughout the growing season have led to mixed yields across the different regions. In the United States, sowing progress is catching up after earlier delays due to cold and wet weather in the northern Corn Belt; however, sowing remains behind in Minnesota and the Dakotas. In Canada, sowing is ongoing under favourable conditions in Ontario and Quebec, while excess moisture in Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan, as well as dry conditions in western Saskatchewan, are of some concern. In China, sowing has begun under favourable conditions. In Ukraine, sowing is progressing despite the uncertainties of the ongoing war.
Crop conditions, AMIS countries, 28 May 2022
The global climate outlook for July 2022 to September 2022 indicates that variable rainfall conditions are expected for the world's major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions. Outlooks and potential production impacts for the major grain and oilseed producing countries are presented in the table.
| Region | July - September rainfall outlook | Potential impact on production |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Below average rainfall is expected across most of Argentina between July and September 2022. | Below average rainfall across Argentina is likely to adversely affect the establishment and growth of wheat. Dry conditions in September could adversely affect wheat yields and delay planting of corn and cotton. |
| Black Sea Region | Ukraine - Average rainfall is more likely across parts of Ukraine. Kazakhstan - Average rainfall is more likely across parts of Kazakhstan. The Russian Federation – Average rainfall is more likely across most of Russia. |
Average rainfall across much of The Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will support yield potential for spring wheat, corn, cotton and sunflower during flowering and grain filling in July and August 2022. |
| Brazil | Above average rainfall is more likely across parts of northern and southern Brazil and below average rainfall is more likely across parts of central Brazil between July and September 2022. | Below average rainfall in July 2022 across central Brazil may adversely affect the establishment and growth of wheat. Dry conditions in August to September could adversely affect wheat yields and delay the planting of corn and soybean. |
| Canada | Average rainfall is more likely for much of Canada, especially across major production regions between July and September 2022. | Average rainfall is likely to positively impact yields for spring wheat and canola during critical stages of flowering and filling in July and August. Likewise, average rainfall conditions will support the development and growth of corn, soybeans and sunflower. |
| China | Below average rainfall is more likely across parts of north-western, central and eastern China, and above average rainfall is likely in north‑eastern and southern China between July and September 2022. | Below average rainfall across parts of north-western, central and eastern China is likely to negatively impact cotton, spring wheat, sunflower and rice yields in affected regions. The dry conditions, however, may assist harvesting of spring wheat in September. Above average rainfall across north-eastern China is likely to support the yield potential for corn, sorghum and soybean between July and August 2022. |
| Europe | Below average rainfall is more likely for parts of southern and eastern Europe between July and September 2022. | Below average rainfall across parts of southern and eastern Europe may adversely affect the yield potential of corn, soybean, sorghum and sunflower seeds during flowering and grain development. The dry conditions, however, will assist with harvesting of winter wheat. |
| South Asia (India) | Average to above average rainfall is more likely across much of India between July and September 2022. | Average to above average rainfall across much of India is likely to benefit the yield potential of non-irrigated rice, corn, millet and sorghum from July 2022. |
| Southeast Asia (SEA) | Above average rainfall is more likely for parts of southern Southeast Asian countries and below average rainfall is more likely for southern Myanmar and the Philippines between July and September 2022. | Average or better rainfall across most of Southeast Asia is likely to benefit corn and rice potential yields. Below average rainfall across parts of Myanmar and the Philippines may adversely impact rice and corn production. |
| The United States of America | Above average rainfall is likely for much of the eastern US and below average rainfall is more likely for most northern and central growing regions between July and September 2022. | Average or better rainfall across the eastern US is likely to support the yield potential of cotton, corn, groundnuts and soybeans during the flowering and grain development in July and August. Below average rainfall in northern and central US is likely to adversely impact canola, cotton, sorghum and spring wheat yields in affected regions. |
Over the 8-days to 23 June 2022, a cold front moving across southern Australia is expected to bring moderate rainfall to parts of south-western and south-eastern Australia. Meanwhile, high pressure systems are forecast to be the dominant climate feature across much of the country, resulting in clear, dry conditions.
Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for alpine regions of New South Wales and Victoria, southern parts of Victoria and South Australia, parts of the south-west of Western Australia and northern Tasmania. Little to no rainfall is forecast across remaining parts of Australia over the next 8-days.
In Australian cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are expected in isolated parts of south-eastern New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, central parts of South Australia, as well as western parts of Western Australia. Little to no rainfall is forecast for all remaining cropping regions during the next 8-days.
A second week of dry conditions across cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland should see soil moisture levels continuing to decrease, allowing improved access to fields. A significant proportion of summer crops are still awaiting harvesting in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Likewise, progress on winter crop plantings have been limited due to the wet conditions. If dry conditions persist, growers may have an opportunity to plant winter cereals in the coming weeks before the planting window closes. Despite relatively dry conditions across cropping regions of southern Australia, soil moisture levels remain average to above average. The large winter crop planting is expected to have sufficient plant available water to support crop development over the coming weeks.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 16 June to 23 June 2022
Water
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Commodities
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