Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 13 June 2024

For the week ending 12 June 2024, rainfall was isolated to the south of the country. Low-pressure troughs brought up to 300 millimetres of rainfall to scattered areas of New South Wales, with Victoria receiving up to 100 millimetres. Meanwhile, a cold front brought up to 150 millimetres of rainfall in south-west Western Australia that had severe rainfall deficiencies in recent months. In Tasmania, a cold font brought a maximum of 100 millimetres of rainfall. A High-pressure system kept central to northern Australia largely dry.

Across cropping regions, rainfall totals were high in the south-west and south-east, and low in the remaining regions. In Western Australia, up to 150 millimetres of rainfall was observed. New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland recorded largely less than 10 millimetres of rainfall with exception in central New South Wales and along eastern cropping margins in Victoria where up to 100 millimetres and 25 millimetres of rainfall, respectively, was recorded. This week of rainfall likely provided a further relief to winter cropping areas, particularly in Western Australia, supporting soil moisture content for the progressing season, allowing for the germination of dry sown crops.

Rainfall for the week ending 12 June 2024

Over the 8 days to 20 June 2024, little to no rainfall is forecast for central and northern parts of the country. High-pressure systems in the north are expected to persist, while a low-pressure system is expected to develop in the Great Australian Bight. This is expected to bring rainfall of up to 50 millimetres to isolated parts of southern South Australia, up to 25 millimetres in Victoria and falls of between 5 and 15 millimetres across southern New South Wales and Tasmania. Meanwhile a low-pressure trough is expected to bring falls of up to 50 millimetres to far-west Western Australia.

Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of up to 15 millimetres are expected in southern New South Wales, and across parts of eastern Western Australia and Victoria. Following several weeks of little to no rain, widespread falls of between 10 and 25 millimetres is forecast in South Australia and western Victoria. If realised, this rainfall will facilitate the germination and establishment of winter crops in these areas. Little to no rainfall is expected in the remaining cropping regions, with Queensland and northern New South Wales to remain dry.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 13 June to 20 June 2024

The most recent rainfall outlook for July 2024 provided by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates an increased likelihood of below median rainfall across parts of southern and northern Australia. Above median rainfall is more likely across parts of central Australia and coastal New South Wales. There is not strong tendency of above or below median rainfall across the remainder of Australia.

According to Bureau of Meteorology’s climate model, for July 2024 there is a 75% probability of rainfall totals between 10 and 100 millimetres across much of eastern New South Wales, Victoria, southern South Australia, the southwest of Western Australia and Tasmania. The north of the country is expected to remain largely dry, typical of this time of year, with exceptions in the tropical north of Queensland where up to 100 millimetres of rainfall is expected.

Across cropping regions, there is a 75% chance of receiving between 10 and 50 millimetres of rainfall in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. In Queensland, a maximum of 25 millimetres of rainfall is expected. If realised, this rainfall is likely to be sufficient to support growth of winter crops, however, Queensland cropping areas are expected to experience a drawdown of soil moisture.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring in July 2024

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) climate drivers are currently neutral and having minimal influence on Australian rainfall.

The rainfall outlook for July through September 2024 indicates that above median rainfall is more likely across central parts of the country and scattered areas of coastal New South Wales. Conversely, northern and southern parts of the country are expected to receive below median rainfall, with the probability of receiving median rainfall falling below 40% in parts of the northern tropic and southern South Australia, Victoria, southwest Westen Australia, parts of southern New South Wales and northern Tasmania.

Across cropping regions, the probability of exceeding median rainfall is between 45% and 65% in Queensland, and northern and central New South Wales. Meanwhile, most cropping regions in South Australia, Victoria, southern parts of New South Wales and Western Australia are more likely to experience below median rainfall.

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall July to September 2024

The outlook for July through September 2024 suggests a 75% chance of rainfall totals of between 25 to 200 millimetres likely across southern parts of the country, with heavier falls of up to 600 millimetres forecast for isolated areas of far southwest Western Australia, alpine regions of Victoria and New South Wales, and western Tasmania. In Queensland, falls of between 25 and 100 millimetres are expected in the southeast and parts of the northeast. Much of the remainder of the country is expected to receive little to no rainfall, consistent with these regions entering their dry season.

In cropping regions, there is at least a 75% chance of receiving between 50 and 100 millimetres of rainfall across much of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. In Queensland, falls of between 25 and 100 millimetres are expected, with drier conditions forecast for far northern cropping regions.

If realised, these expected rainfall totals will likely be sufficient to support growth and establishment of winter crops, particularly in South Australia, Western Australia and western parts of Victoria where soil moisture levels are currently well below average. Expected rainfall across remaining cropping regions will further boost soil moisture profile and will assist in maintaining above average forecast winter crops yields.

Livestock producers, especially those in the south, are expected to experience close to average pasture production on the back of the improving rainfall outlook over the July to September period.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring July to September 2024