South Australia

Australian Crop Report: September edition

Winter crop production in South Australia is forecast to fall by 9% to 7.9 million tonnes in 2024– 25, reflecting persistent dry conditions across most cropping regions. This represents a downward revision of 4% from the June 2024 Australian crop report, sitting slightly below the 10-year average to 2023–24 and is the seventh highest on record. Below average rainfall through winter has seen soil moisture levels continue to decline across most cropping regions, delayed crop establishment and reduced yield prospects. While overall yields are forecast to fall, there is some regional variability, with localised rainfall events in the lower and eastern Eyre Peninsula in June cushioning yield reductions in these areas.

According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (September to November), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 22 August 2024, rainfall is likely to be below average across western and central cropping regions in South Australia, with above average temperatures also expected. The increased chance of drier and warmer conditions through spring presents a downside risk for winter crops that are already experiencing moisture stress. Given the late start to the season and with temperatures rising, final yield prospects will be highly dependent on adequate and timely rainfall in spring.

Winter crop yields are forecast to fall by 9% in 2024–25 to 2.02 tonnes per hectare, 6% below the 10-year average to 2023–24. Canola yields, typically more sensitive to dry conditions, are expected to fall by 23% to 1.58 tonnes per hectare, 9% below the 10-year average to 2023–24. Wheat and barley yields are also expected to fall year-on-year (8% and 5% respectively). Lentil yields are forecast to fall by 6% to 1.83 tonnes per hectare. Despite the fall, lentil yields are expected to be in line with the 10-year average to 2023–24, reflecting a transition towards higher yielding varieties in recent years.

Area planted to winter crops is forecast to fall by 1% to 3.9 million hectares in 2024–25, with reductions in area planted to wheat, barley and canola partially offset by an increase in the area planted to lentils. However, this forecast remains 7% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. The largest reduction in area planted is seen in canola, down 7% year-on-year, driven by dry conditions at planting and substitution towards other crops such as lentils. Area planted to lentils is forecast to increase by 21% to 470 thousand hectares, driven by high export prices at the time of planting. The increase in lentil area comes at the expense of area planted to canola and minor crops such as field peas and lupins.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES