Queensland

Australian Crop Report: September edition

Winter crop production in Queensland is forecast to increase by 94% to reach 3.3 million tonnes in 2024–25, the third highest production on record. This is 62% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 and represents a 15% upwards revision from the June 2024 Australian crop report. This increase in production is attributed to above average sub-soil moisture availability across most areas. Additionally, the spring climate outlook is expected to offer favourable conditions for crop flowering and grain-filling, helping to sustain strong yield potential.

Winter crop yields are forecast to rise by 45% to around 2.19 tonnes per hectare in 2024–25, 32% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 and represents a 10% upwards revision from the June 2024 Australian crop report. The climate outlook (issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 22 August 2024) suggests a 50 to 65% chance of above average rainfall for most cropping regions in Queensland. Coupled with currently above average sub-soil moisture, this favourable climate outlook is expected to maintain above average yield prospects.

Area planted to winter crops in Queensland is forecast to be 1.5 million hectares in 2024–25, rising by 34% year-on-year and sitting 29% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. The year-on-year expansion in area is attributed to the optimal start to the cropping season, driven by adequate rainfall and high soil moisture levels at planting. Chickpeas saw the largest percentage increase in area, up 73% year-on-year. The announcement of a tariff-free period for Australian chickpeas by India has supported a rapid rise in chickpea prices, acting as a catalyst for a significant expansion in chickpea area this season.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Summer crop production in Queensland is forecast to rise by 7% to 2.2 million tonnes in 2024–25. This is 28% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. The year-on-year rise in production is attributed to a larger area planted to summer crops, supported by above average soil moisture levels and an increased probability of above median rainfall from September to November. This combination is expected to sustain a healthy soil moisture profile, and consequently, enhance yield potential. The total area planted to summer crops in Queensland is forecast to be 646 thousand hectares, which is an increase of 5% year-on-year and 5% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.

Sorghum production is forecast to increase by 10% to 1.7 million tonnes in 2024–25, 41% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. High levels of stored soil moisture and the favourable climatic outlook is expected to boost grower confidence and planting intentions, leading to an increase in the area allocated to sorghum. This shift also indicates a decrease in the area devoted to cotton for the current season. The forecast area increase reflects higher expected margins for sorghum relative to cotton. As such, the forecast area for sorghum is 440 thousand hectares, which is a 6% year-on-year increase and is 15% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.

Cotton lint production is forecast to fall by 6% to 292 thousand tonnes in 2024–25, driven by a reduction in planted area. Area planted to cotton is expected to decrease to 119 thousand hectares, as lower world cotton prices reduce expected returns relative to other crops such as sorghum. A favourable rainfall outlook for spring is expected to support soil moisture levels and allow for timely planting in dryland growing regions. Yields are expected to remain above the 10-year average to 2023–24.

Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES