Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 30 January 2025

In the week ending 29 January 2025, low-pressure systems and a series of troughs brought rainfall and storms to the north and east of the country, while the remainder of the country was largely dry.

• The northern tropics, including the Northern Territory and northern Western Australia recorded falls between 25–150 millimetres. Meanwhile, much of northern Queensland, recorded falls between 25–200 millimetres, with up to 400 millimetres in isolated coastal areas.
• Eastern Queensland, eastern New South Wales and Tasmania received between 0–50 millimetres of rainfall, while eastern Victoria received between 0–25 millimetres.
• South Australia, southern Western Australia, and central inland regions of Australia recorded little to no rainfall over the period.

Rainfall totals were generally low across cropping regions:

• Southern cropping regions received little to no rainfall. This included much of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, and southern Queensland which received between 0–10 millimetres.
• Parts of northern and south-western Queensland recorded slightly higher rainfall totals, with falls between 10–50 millimetres recorded across some regions.
• Despite the lack of rainfall across many summer cropping areas, most areas remain on track to record above average yield due to close to average soil moisture levels for this time of year.

Rainfall for the week ending 29 January 2025

Over the 8 days to 6 February 2025, tropical lows and troughs are expected to bring rainfall and storms over the east and north of Australia:

• Falls between 10–100 millimetres are likely for much of northern Western Australia, and the Northern Territory. In northern Queensland, falls are expected to be higher, between 50 to 300 millimetres.
• Between 5–50 millimetres are forecast for much of New South Wales and southern Queensland, with falls between 5–15 expected in Victoria and Tasmania.
• By contrast, a high-pressure system is expected to keep much of the remainder of the south and interior of Australia largely dry, including South Australia and southern Western Australia.

Rainfall forecasts across cropping regions over the coming week are mixed:

• Low rainfall totals are expected in southern cropping regions, including across much of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, and southern and central New South Wales (between 1–10 millimetres).
• Higher rainfall is expected in northern cropping regions, with Queensland likely to receive between 10–100 millimetres. In northern New South Wales, falls between 10–50 millimetres are expected. Rainfall forecast for summer cropping regions in Queensland and New South Wales is likely to be sufficient to support average soil moisture levels and above average summer crop yield potentials.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 30 January to 6 February 2025

The timing of northern rainfall onset is an important indicator for seasonal pasture growth and potential livestock production. The rainfall onset indicates the accumulation of at least 50 millimetres of rainfall after 1 September to stimulate plant growth after the northern dry season.

The northern rainfall onset was achieved earlier than normal across large areas of northern Australia, despite record-late monsoon onset in 2024–25. Since 1 September 2024, large areas of northern Australia have received at least 50 millimetres of rainfall, and the northern rainfall onset was achieved early across northern parts of Western Australia, the Northern Territory and large areas of western Queensland.

Despite the delayed onset of the northern monsoon, sufficient and timely rainfall has been recorded across much of northern Australia, likely stimulating and supporting pasture production across many northern grazing regions.

Number of days earlier or later than the long-term average onset date

This is further supported by analysis of rainfall deciles between October-December 2024 which record average to above average rainfall across much of northern Australia. Isolated areas of Queensland saw below average rainfall over the period.

Rainfall deciles for the period 1 October to 31 December 2024