Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 27 February 2025

In the week ending 26 February, low pressure systems brought rainfall to northern Australia. In the south, high-pressure system kept much of the country largely dry.

• The northern tropics, including the Northern Territory, and northern Western Australia and Queensland recorded falls between 5-100 millimetres, with rainfall totals higher in far-northern regions.
  • In isolated areas of northern Queensland and the Northern Territory, tropical lows brough rainfall totals exceeding 100 millimetres.
• Scattered areas of southern Queensland, eastern New South Wales and Victoria, as well as much of the west of Western Australia, observed rainfall totals of 5-50 millimetres. In Tasmania, a maximum of 25 millimetres of rainfall was recorded.

Across remaining area of the country, little to no rainfall was recorded.

• Rainfall totals were generally low across all cropping regions.
• In Queensland and Western Australia, isolated rainfall totals of between 0-15 millimetres were observed, with remaining cropping regions seeing 0-10 millimetres. The lack of rainfall across summer cropping regions has likely seen a drawdown of stored soil moisture but will also likely have supported the uninterrupted harvesting of earlier planted summer crops.

Rainfall for the week ending 26 February 2025

Over the 8 days to 6 March 2025, Tropical Cyclone (TC) Alfred and low-pressure systems are expected to bring rainfall to parts of the north and east of the country.

• Falls of between 10–50 millimetres are likely for parts of northern Western Australia, the north of the Northern Territory and the far north of Queensland.
• Between 5–100 millimetres are forecast for of south-eastern Queensland and eastern New South Wales, with higher rainfall totals in coastal regions.
• By contrast, a high-pressure system is expected to keep much of the remainder of Australia largely dry.

Rainfall totals across cropping regions over the coming week are forecast to be low.

• Rainfall totals of between 5-50 millimetres are forecast for cropping regions in Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales. If realised, these falls are likely to boost soil moisture for late planted summer crops and ahead of the planting of winter crops, however, this may bring some delays to the harvesting of earlier planted summer crops.
• In contrast, cropping regions in southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia are forecast to see little to no rainfall over the period.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 27 February to 6 March 2025

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) climate drivers are currently neutral and having minimal influence on Australian rainfall. The IOD and SAM are likely to remain neutral over the coming weeks, however, indicators suggest that chances of a La Nina event are strengthening.

The most recent rainfall outlook for March 2025 provided by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that much of north-eastern Australia, including Queensland and the Northern Territory, as well as parts of northern New South Wales and western Tasmania are more likely to see below median rainfall. For the remaining regions, rainfall is expected to be close to average, with no strong tendency towards below or above average rainfall.

• The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate model predicts a 75% chance of March rainfall totals between 25–200 millimetres across much of the northern Australia, with parts of far-north Queensland likely to see rainfall totals of above 300 millimetres.
• Eastern Australia, including the far southeast of Queensland, eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, parts of southern Western Australia and Tasmania are likely to see between 10-100 millimetres of rainfall.
• Lower rainfall totals are expected across western, central and southern areas, with much of southern Western Australia, southern Northern Territory, South Australia, western and central Queensland and New South Wales, and northern Victoria likely to see between 0–10 millimetres.

Across cropping regions, the March rainfall outlook is highly variable

• There is a 75% chance of between 5–25 millimetres across much of New South Wales and between 1–10 millimetres in Queensland. If realised, this rainfall with the support of close to average soil moisture levels is likely to support average to above average yield prospects for summer crops and average or better levels of pasture production in affected areas.
• Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining southern cropping regions. This forecast is typical for this time of year, expected to lead to continued low levels of pasture growth and increased livestock turn-off.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring in March 2025 

The Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall outlook for March to May 2025 indicates an increased probability of below average rainfall across much of Queensland and the Northern Territory, with parts of west Western Australia are likely to see above median rainfall. Much of the remainder of the country March to May 2025 rainfall is expected to be close to average, with no strong tendency towards below or above average rainfall.

Across cropping regions, the chance of receiving above median rainfall is between 30-40% across northern Queensland. In the remaining cropping regions, March to May 2025 rainfall is expected to be close to average with no strong tendency towards below or above average rainfall (45–65% chance of exceeding the median).

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring March 2025 to May 2025

The rainfall outlook for March to May 2025 also includes rainfall totals which have a 75% of occurring:

• Between 200–800 millimetres are expected across much of northern Australia, including northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and Queensland. Rainfall totals greater than 800 millimetres are expected in the far-north of Queensland and the Northern Territory.
• Between 25–200 millimetres of rainfall is forecast across much of southern Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, southern South Australia, western and southern Western Australia and Tasmania, with rainfall totals exceeding 200 millimetres likely across coastal and alpine areas.
• Drier conditions are expected across central Australia, with little to no rainfall is forecast over the period.

In cropping regions:

• Rainfall totals between 25–100 millimetres are forecast across most cropping regions, with a 75% likelihood. If realised, these forecast rainfall totals are likely to be sufficient to support autumn pasture growth in these areas. Additionally, these expected falls are likely to provide a boost to soil moisture profiles ahead of winter crop planting and maintain above average yield expectation for summer crops in Queensland and northern New South Wales.
• Forecast rainfall totals are lower in the south, between 25–100 millimetres with a 75% likelihood for much of Western Australia and Victoria, and between 10–50 millimetres in South Australia.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring March 2025 to May 2025