Key issues
- In the week ending 20 November 2024, low-pressure systems and troughs brought scattered rainfall to much of Australia.
- Many northern cropping regions recorded significant rainfall. Totals of 10 to 50 millimetres were recorded across much of NSW, while in Queensland totals were greater than 25 millimetres in many areas, and in some cases up to 150 millimetres.
- Cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria generally saw between 1 and 10 millimetres of rainfall.
- For those cropping regions that recorded significant rainfall, this has likely delayed the harvest of winter crops and the planting of summer crops. Elsewhere, little to no rainfall would have allowed for a largely uninterrupted harvest of winter crops.
- Over the coming days, low-pressure systems are expected to bring rainfall across all states and territories.
- Across cropping regions, rainfall is expected across much of the eastern and western growing regions, however western cropping areas are expected to record much lower rainfall totals than the east. If realised, this rainfall is likely to interrupt the harvest of winter crops.
- Rainfall forecast for summer cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland will likely provide a boost for soil moisture levels and support the germination and growth of crops already in the ground.
- Globally, variable rainfall during October has led to mixed crop production prospects.
- Global production conditions were generally favourable for rice, maize and soybeans but more variable for wheat.
- Global production conditions have been less favourable compared to those used to formulate ABARES forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices for 2024–25 in its September 2024 edition of the Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production are likely to decline compared to those presented in the September forecast.
- Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 189 gigalitres (GL) between 14 and 21 November 2024. Currently, the volume of water held in storage is 16 321 GL, equivalent to 73% of total storage capacity. This is 17 percent or 3,349GL less than at the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the BOM.
- Water allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $148 on 14 November 2024 to $145 on 21 November 2024. Prices are lower in regions above the Barmah choke because the Barmah choke trade constraint is currently binding.
Climate
For the week ending 20 November 2024, a cold front and low-pressure troughs brought storms to parts of eastern Australia. Rainfall totals of up to 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of eastern Victoria and New South Wales, and eastern Queensland recorded as much as 150 millimetres in isolated areas. Rainfall totals of up to 150 millimetres were also recorded in scattered areas of the northern tropics and the west of Western Australia. In contrast, a high-pressure system kept southern regions of mainland Australia relatively dry. In Tasmania, a cold front brought up to 100 millimetres of rainfall in the west and east.
Across cropping regions, rainfall outcomes were mixed. Much of Victoria, South Australia, and southern Western Australia saw little to no rainfall, with totals generally between 1 and 10 millimetres. Northern margins of Western Australia’s cropping region received falls of between 10 and 100 millimetres. Eastern cropping regions generally saw higher rainfall totals, with between 10 and 50 millimetres across much of New South Wales, and up to 150 millimetres in parts of southern Queensland. For those areas that recorded significant rainfall this week, this has likely delayed the harvest of winter crops and the planting of summer crops. Elsewhere, little to no rainfall would have allowed for a largely uninterrupted harvest of winter crops.
Rainfall for the week ending 20 November 2024
Issued: 20/11/2024
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/
Over the 8 days to 28 November 2024, low-pressure systems are expected to bring rainfall to northern parts of the country, with up to 100 millimetres forecast in northern Western Australia and the Northern Territory. In the north-east, a coastal trough is forecast to bring up to 150 millimetres to areas of coastal Queensland. In the south, rainfall totals are expected to be moderate, with much of southern Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania forecast to receive up to 25 millimetres of rainfall.
Across cropping regions, rainfall is forecast to be relatively low in the west, with most regions expected to receive between 5 and 10 millimetres. In the east, rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres are forecast for New South Wales and Victoria, with isolated areas of South Australia likely to see up to 50 millimetres. In the southern cropping regions of Queensland, between 5 and 15 millimetres is forecast, with up to 50 millimetres in the north.
If realised, rainfall across eastern cropping regions will likely interrupt the harvest of winter crops. Rainfall forecast for summer cropping regions in northern New South Wales and Queensland will likely provide a boost for soil moisture levels and support the germination and growth of crops already in the ground.
Total forecast rainfall for the period 21 November to 28 November 2024
Issued 21/11/2024
Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Global crop production conditions and climate outlookCrop production is affected by long-term trends in average rainfall and temperature, interannual climate variability, shocks during specific growth stages, and extreme weather events. Some crops are more tolerant than others to certain types of stresses, and at each growth stage, different types of stresses affect each crop species in different ways.
The precipitation anomalies and outlooks presented here give an indication of the current and future state of production conditions for the major grain and oilseed producing countries which are responsible for over 80% of global crop production. This is an important input to assessing the global grain supply outlook.
Rainfall in October 2024 was generally favourable across the world’s major grain- and oilseed-producing regions.
In the southern hemisphere, precipitation was below average in northern and eastern Brazil and southern Argentina. Rainfall was above average in western Argentina and central Brazil. Rainfall was generally average in the remaining grain- and oilseed-producing regions in the southern hemisphere.
In the northern hemisphere, precipitation was below average in much of the northern, southern, and eastern United States, northern Mexico, central Canada, central areas of the Russian Federation, and parts of eastern Europe. Precipitation was above average in western Europe, parts of central and eastern China, and parts of India. Rainfall was generally average in the remaining grain- and oilseed-producing nations in the northern hemisphere.
Global precipitation percentiles, October 2024
Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society
As of 28 October 2024, global production conditions were generally favourable for maize, rice and soybeans but variable for wheat:
- Wheat – in the northern hemisphere, wheat is being sown under mixed conditions, while the wheat harvest in the southern hemisphere has started.
- Maize – in the northern hemisphere, crop conditions range from expectational in the United States to poor in parts of Europe and Ukraine. In the southern hemisphere, sowing is continuing in Brazil and Argentina.
- Rice – Conditions are generally favourable, however, adverse climate conditions have negatively impacted crops in parts of south-east Asia.
- Soybeans – in the northern hemisphere, conditions range from generally favourable to exceptional in the US, but poor in the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Sowing is beginning in the southern hemisphere.
Crop conditions, AMIS countries, 28 October 2024
Source: AMIS
The global climate outlook for December 2024 to February 2025 indicates that mixed rainfall conditions are expected for the world’s major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions. Outlooks and potential production impacts for the major grain and oilseed producing countries are presented in the following table.
Rainfall outlook and potential impact on the future state of production conditions between December2024 to February 2025
| Region | November-January rainfall outlook | Potential impact on production |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Below average rainfall is more likely across eastern and central parts of Argentina. | Below average rainfall may hinder flowering and seed development of corn, cotton, soybeans, rice, sorghum, millet, and sunflower crops over the December to February period. However, dry conditions are likely to support the harvest of wheat in December. |
| Black Sea Region | Generally, below average rainfall is expected across much of the Black Sea region, including parts of Türkiye, Ukraine, and west of the Russian Federation. | Winter wheat and canola will remain dormant throughout December to February across the Black Sea Region. Below average rainfall in many parts may reduce snowpack levels that protect crops from winterkill. |
| Brazil | Above average rainfall is more likely across northern parts of Brazil. Close to average rainfall in more likely for central Brazil, with below average rainfall likely in the south. | Above average rainfall in northern Brazil may support the flowering of corn, soybeans, groundnuts, and cotton in from December to January, as well as the grain filling of these crops over January and February. Below average rainfall in southern Brazil will likely adversely affect the growth, flowering and filling of soybeans. |
| Canada | Generally, average to above average rainfall is likely across much of Canada, with exceptions in the north-east. | Average to above average rainfall is likely to provide sufficient snowpack to prevent winterkill of winter wheat and canola from December to February. |
| China | Below average rainfall is likely across western and eastern regions of China. Average to above average rainfall is more likely in central regions. | Drier than average conditions in western and eastern regions may reduce snowpack and increase the risk of winterkill for winter wheat and canola from December to February. |
| Europe | Average rainfall is likely for much of Europe, although parts of western Europe are likely to see below average rainfall. | Average rainfall may boost snowpack in parts of central Europe, decreasing the risk of winterkill for winter wheat and canola. |
| South Asia (India) | Close to average rainfall is likely across much of India. Above average rainfall is expected in the south and far-east. | Average rainfall across much of India will support the harvesting of corn, cotton, groundnuts, millet, rice, sorghum and sunflower. Average rainfall across much of India will also support the heading and filling of winter wheat and canola in January. |
| Southeast Asia (SEA) | Average to above average rainfall is likely across much of Southeast Asia. | Average to above average rainfall in SEA is likely to benefit the growth and development of dry-season rice throughout December and January, but may impede the harvest of rice and soybean in parts of Indonesia, Malaysia, and the harvest of corn in Thailand and Vietnam |
| The United States of America (US) | Generally, below average rainfall is likely for much of southern half of the US, with average rainfall more likely across the northern half. | Average rainfall conditions expected across the northern US is likely to provide sufficient snow cover from December to February to protect winter wheat and canola through dormancy. |
Water
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