ABARES climate change research examines the impacts of climate change and climate change policy on Australian agriculture, monitors emerging adaptation responses, and considers possible future climate scenarios.
Analysis on the Australian broadacre farming sector draws heavily on economic scenario modeling as outlined below. Climate change remains a cross-cutting issue interacting with a range of other research topics and areas within ABARES including for example water, forests, fisheries, biosecurity and international trade.
Research reports
Modeling the effects of climate change on the profitability of Australian farms
Published: 08 June 2022
In this research article a statistical model of Australian cropping and livestock farms is combined with downscaled temperature and rainfall projections for 2050, to simulate the effects of climate change on farm profits. These future projections are compared against both a historical reference climate (1950 to 2000) and recent conditions (2001 to 2020). The results provide an indication of ‘adaptation pressure’: showing which regions, sectors and farm types may be under greater pressure to adapt or adjust to climate change.
Climate change impacts and adaptation on Australian farms
Published: 29 July 2021
This report details the potential adaptation pressure facing Australian farmers at a regional scale. The ABARES farmpredict model is combined with downscaled projections for temperature and rainfall by 2050 to examine the effects of recent and future projected changes in climate on the profitability of Australian farms. Productivity trends are also presented, showing how farm adaptation has helped to offset the effects of hotter and drier conditions to date.
Agricultural Data Integration Project Report
Published: 16 December 2020
The Agricultural Data Integration Project (AgDIP) is a long-term collaboration between ABARES and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to develop, integrate and analyse new large-scale farm level agricultural data sets. The AgDIP establishes a new national database of Australian farms, including information on agricultural production, business financial outcomes, weather conditions and commodity prices over the period 2000-01 to 2017-18. This includes the construction of the Farm-level Longitudinal Agricultural Dataset (FLAD), the integration of FLAD with the ABS Business Longitudinal Agricultural Data Environment (BLADE) and the development of new predictive models linking farm outcomes with climate conditions.
Opportunities from action on climate change: Insights
Published: 10 December 2020
Climate change and associated policies have important implications for future competitiveness of Australia’s agricultural exports, which many agricultural industries are already addressing through ambitious emissions reduction plans. Some of Australia’s major agricultural exports are already relatively less emissions intensive than some major competitors providing scope for Australia to further its trade reputation as a reliable and sustainable producer. This ABARES Insights report concludes that innovation and investment are key to decoupling emissions from agricultural production, and promoting evidence-based trade rules and product certification will help achieve industry goals of emissions reduction and revenue growth.
New insights on the effects of drought and climate variability on Australian farms
Published: 18 December 2019
The current drought across much of eastern Australia has demonstrated the dramatic effects that climate variability can have on farm businesses and households. The drought has also renewed longstanding discussions around the emerging effects of climate change on agriculture, and how governments can best help manage climate risk. This article examining the effects of recent climate variability on Australian farms.
Farm performance and climate: climate adjusted productivity on cropping farms
Published: 9 May 2017
The Farm performance and climate report examines the effect of climate variability and climate change on the productivity of Australian broadacre cropping farms between 1977–78 and 2014–15. The study combines ABARES farm survey data with climate data to estimate the effect of climate variables (such as, rainfall and temperature) on both cropping farm Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and wheat yields.