Agricultural Commodities Report December 2024

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This report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia’s agricultural production and exports to 2024–25.

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Gross value of agricultural production to rise by 7% to $88.4 billion in 2024–25.
Livestock and livestock product values to rise as strong demand and prices increase turn-off.
Crop production values up slightly as higher than expected production outweighs falling prices.
Agricultural export values to fall by 2% in 2024–25 to $70.1 billion given falling crop export values.

Global economic outlook to improve in 2025 due to lower inflation and interest rates in key economies.
Chinese household consumption to remain under pressure in 2025 despite government stimulus.
Uncertainty around US government policy a risk to global trade flows and agricultural export demand.
Australian dollar to remain relatively low in 2024–25, supporting export competitiveness.
Australian consumer spending to increase in 2024–25 with growth in household disposable income.

Global crop production in 2024–25 is projected to remain above 2023–24 levels despite extreme weather events across both the northern and southern hemisphere.
Variable winter/spring rainfall has limited crop and pasture production prospects across parts of south-eastern Australia.
Despite this, national crop and livestock production in 2024–25 is expected to be higher than forecast in the September 2024 Agricultural Commodities Report.
Australia is expected to see an improvement in climatic condition during summer 2024–25.

Value of Australian crop production to increase by 5% to $49.8 billion in 2024–25, driven by higher production.
Australian crop production to increase in 2024–25 despite drier than expected conditions in south-eastern Australia.
Value and volume of crop exports to fall reflecting falling prices and exportable supplies.
World crop prices to ease in 2024–25 with high global supply, but likely to remain historically elevated.

Value of production for livestock and livestock products to rise by 11% to $38.6 billion in 2024‍–‍25.
Domestic prices to rise for livestock but fall for livestock products.
Domestic production volumes of meat to rise, milk and wool production to fall.
Value of livestock and livestock product exports to rise by 7% to $31.4 billion in 2024‍–‍25.
Rising world demand for most livestock products expected to outweigh higher world supply.

National average broadacre farm business profit to increase by $82,000 in 2024–25 from -$49,000 to $33,000 given higher livestock prices and as improving seasonal conditions drive higher total production.
Cropping farms expected to have another profitable year, with easing costs helping drive improved profits.
Livestock farm profits to increase, driven by higher prices, but remain below historical averages.
Dry conditions are driving below average farm profits in some parts of southern Australia. However, profitability is expected to be strong across northern Australia and much of New South Wales.