Australian Crop Report March 2025

Summer crop production forecast to fall slightly but remain well above average in 2024–25

Summer crop production is forecast to fall by 1% to 4.7 million tonnes in 2024–‍25 (Figure 1) but remain 28% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24. This represents a 7% upward revision from the December 2024 Australian Crop Report, reflecting favourable seasonal conditions across the majority of summer cropping regions.

Area planted to summer crops in 2024–‍25 is estimated to have increased by 2% to 1.4 million hectares, reflecting above average soil moisture levels during the planting window. However, area expansion was limited somewhat by lower water allocations in some areas and a record area planted to winter crops in key summer cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales.

Sorghum production is forecast to increase by 5% to 2.3 million tonnes in 2024–‍25, 37% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24 of 1.7 million tonnes. Despite an estimated 4% decline in total area planted to sorghum, late spring and early summer rainfall boosted soil moisture levels and supported late planting of sorghum. Average yields are estimated to be 33% above the ten-year average to 2023–‍24, reflecting favourable seasonal conditions in major growing regions.

Production of cotton lint is forecast to rise by 4% to 1.1 million tonnes in 2024–‍25, reflecting higher area planted more than offsetting lower yields. Area planted to cotton is forecast to rise by 10% to 521 thousand hectares in 2024–‍25 to sit 31% above the 10-‍year average 2023–‍24. The increase in planted area largely reflects increases in Queensland. Average yields are expected to fall from near record levels in 2023–‍24. However, high water availability and above-average rainfall across much of eastern Australia have supported above average yields, with the production forecast sitting 42% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24

Rice production is forecast to fall by 29% to 444 thousand tonnes in 2024–‍25. A forecast 25% decline in area planted in New South Wales, motivated by lower global prices and reduced general security water allocations, is expected to drive the decline in production.

Figure 1 Australian summer crop production, 2024–25

2024–25 winter crop third largest on record

Australian winter crop production is estimated to have increased by 26% to 59.8 million tonnes in 2024–‍25 (Figure 2). This is 27% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24 of 47.1 million tonnes and is the third highest result on record. While national winter crop production is estimated to increase overall, seasonal conditions were mixed across Australian winter cropping regions.

• Winter crop production is estimated to have increased by 79% in New South Wales and more than doubled in Queensland, with total production expected to reach the second highest and highest result on record, respectively. Favourable growing conditions throughout the season in most cropping regions contributed to above average yields in both states.
• Crop prospects in Western Australia improved significantly throughout the season, despite a dry start and below average in crop rainfall. The timing of rainfall was critical, together with mild spring conditions which resulted in well above average yields. Total winter crop production is now expected to reach the third highest level on record.
• In contrast, production is estimated to be well below average in South Australia and Victoria. Persistent dry conditions throughout the winter cropping season led to widespread moisture stress and significantly lower than average winter crop yields. Large areas of south-eastern Australia also experienced widespread severe frosts during September 2024 which compounded the lack of in crop rainfall.
• Despite below average in crop rainfall in major cropping regions of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria, it has been noted that improved farming practices that conserve soil moisture and improve water use efficiency together with advancements in seed varieties has resulted in higher-than-expected yields given the challenging seasonal conditions.
  National winter crop production has been revised up 9% from the December 2024 Australian Crop Report. Upward revisions for New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and Western Australia significantly more than offset a slight downward revision for South Australia, with national production estimates for all major winter crops expected to be above average in 2024–‍25.

Figure 2 Australian winter crop production, 2024–25

National winter crop production has been revised up 9% from the December 2024 Australian Crop Report . Upward revisions for New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and Western Australia significantly more than offset a slight downward revision for South Australia, with national production estimates for all major winter crops expected to be above average in 2024–‍25.

• Wheat production is estimated to increase by 31% to 34.1 million tonnes in 2024–25, 28% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. Wheat production in New South Wales and Western Australia – the two largest wheat producing states – is estimated to rebound by 82% and 64% respectively in 2024–25, largely driven by increased production in northern cropping regions of both states.
• Barley production is estimated to increase by 23% to 13.3 million tonnes in 2024–25, 17% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. This forecast reflects an estimated 10% increase in area and above average national barley yields.
• Canola production is estimated to fall by 2% to 5.9 million tonnes in 2024–25, driven by a decrease in total area planted offsetting higher yields. Area planted, however, remains above the 10-year average resulting in expected canola production remaining 31% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.
• Lentil production is estimated to fall by 26% to 1.2 million tonnes in 2024–25, reflecting dry conditions across southern states. However, this remains well above the 10-year average to 2023–24 of 764 thousand tonnes, a result of an estimated record area planted to lentils in 2024–25.
• Chickpea production is estimated to have reached a new record in 2024–25 of 2.3 million tonnes. This is almost three times the 10-year average to 2023–24 of 784 thousand tonnes. This result reflects a significant expansion in area in response to favourable prices, and record national yield given optimal planting and growing conditions in New South Wales and Queensland.

Area planted to winter crops in 2024–‍25 is estimated to have increased by 8% to 24.9 million hectares. This is a new national record, driven by a greater area planted to winter crops in New South Wales (up 27%) and Queensland (up 38%). Favourable seasonal conditions at the time of planting led to area increases in both states, with many expanding into regions not normally sown to winter crops such as northwest New South Wales.

Summer crop production in Queensland is forecast to rise by 6% to 2.1 million tonnes in 2024–‍25. This is 27% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24 and represents an 8% upward revision from the December 2024 Australian Crop Report. The upward revision reflects higher production for most summer crops, supported by timely rainfall in late spring and early summer and improved soil moisture, particularly for Central Queensland cropping regions.

Summer cropping area in Queensland is estimated to rise by 5% to 660 thousand hectares in 2024–‍25 and sits 7% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24. Higher cropping area largely reflects greater area planted to cotton, due to improved water availability and above average spring rainfall. In contrast, a fall in area available due to the large Queensland winter crop is estimated to have led to a 4% decline in the area planted to sorghum.

Sorghum production is forecast to increase slightly to 1.5 million tonnes in 2024–‍25. Sorghum yields are forecast to be higher than previously forecast and more than offset declines in area planted to sorghum. Expected higher yields reflect favourable conditions throughout the season for southern cropping regions, with well above average yields expected across the Darling Downs. Below average rainfall in January 2025 discouraged increased planting of sorghum in Central Queensland, with areas becoming too wet to plant following high rainfall totals in February 2025.

Cotton lint production is forecast to rise by 29% to 378 thousand tonnes in 2024–‍25, driven by an increase in planted area. Area planted to cotton is estimated to rise by 32% to 161 thousand hectares in 2024–‍25, as favourable spring rainfall allowed for timely planting in dryland growing regions while improved water availability supported higher irrigated cotton planting. Yields are expected to fall slightly in 2024–‍25 but remain above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24.
 

Note: : Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Queensland is estimated to increase by 122% to reach 3.8 million tonnes in 2024–‍25, the highest production level on record. This is 85% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24 of 2.0 million tonnes and represents a 6% upward revision from the December 2024 Australian Crop Report. This upward revision is attributed to higher yields and greater area planted to chickpeas than previously forecast. The overall increase in winter crop production reflects a year-‍on-‍year expansion in area and above average yields for all major winter crops, supported by adequate rainfall and high soil moisture levels at planting and during the growing season.

Queensland wheat production is estimated to increase by 106% to 2.2 million tonnes in 2024–‍25, with average state yield 42% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24. Barley production is estimated to increase by 78% to 535 thousand tonnes, with average state yield 34% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24. Chickpea production is estimated to increase by 239% to 950 thousand tonnes in 2024–‍25, the second highest level on record, with average state yield 74% above the 10-year average to 2023–‍24. Area planted to chickpeas is estimated to have increased by 91% in 2024–‍25, supported by favourable seasonal conditions at planting and elevated chickpea prices.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Summer crop production in New South Wales is forecast to fall by 6% to 2.4 million tonnes in 2024–‍25. Despite the year-on-year fall in production, this is 29% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍ 24 and represents a 6% upwards revision from the December 2024 Australian Crop Report . A large winter crop has resulted in a marginal fall in area planted to summer crops, whilst mostly favourable growing conditions have supported above average yields.

Area planted to summer crops is estimated to have fallen slightly to 658 thousand hectares, but remains 29% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24 given favourable seasonal conditions. Above average soil moisture levels across the Liverpool plains and favourable sorghum prices further incentivised plantings across the region.

Sorghum production is forecast to rise by 13% to 800 thousand tonnes in 2024–‍25, 55% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24. Area planted to sorghum is estimated to fall by 3% to 170 thousand hectares in 2024–‍25 but remains 16% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24. Expansion in area planted to sorghum was limited by large winter crop plantings, however, favourable rainfall and stored soil moisture at time of planting supported an above average planted area. Average to above average growing season rainfall supported sorghum yields in New South Wales, 42% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24.

Cotton lint production is forecast to fall by 8% to 719 thousand tonnes in 2024–‍25 but will remain above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24 of 519 thousand tonnes. The area planted to cotton is forecast to remain largely stable at 336 thousand hectares in 2024–‍25. This is 30% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24, supported by above average water availability across Gwydir, Namoi and the Macquarie Valley and favourable soil moisture levels. Yields are expected to fall from near record levels in 2023–‍24 but remain above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24, supported by favourable summer rainfall.

Rice production is forecast to fall by 29% to 441 thousand tonnes in 2024–‍25, driven by lower area planted. Lower global prices and reduced general security water allocations across Murrumbidgee are expected to have led to lower rice plantings. Average to above average seasonal conditions over summer are expected to support average yields.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in New South Wales is estimated to rise by 79% to 20.3 million tonnes in 2024–‍25. This estimate is the second highest production level on record and 72% above the 10-‍year average to 2023‍–‍24. Area planted to winter crops in New South Wales is estimated to be 7.1 million hectares in 2024–‍25, rising by 27% compared to last year and 28% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24.

Increases in area planted to winter crops reflect above average subsoil moisture across much of northern and central New South Wales at the time of planting. Additionally, high chickpea prices following the temporary removal of Indian tariffs on Australian chickpea imports, incentivised growers to increase chickpea plantings. Northern and central New South Wales experienced favourable growing season rainfall. By contrast, southern growing regions experienced a dry start to the season with some areas impacted by frost events. However, average to above average rainfall throughout October and November 2024 supported a recovery in yields across these cropping regions. As a result, 2024–‍25 winter crop production estimates have seen an upwards revision of 6% from the forecast in the December 2024 Australian Crop Report.

New South Wales wheat production is estimated to rise by 82% in 2024–‍25, to 12.9 million tonnes, with the average state yield 48% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24. Barley production is estimated to rise by 77% to 3.4 million tonnes and canola production by 13% to 1.8 million tonnes. The overall quality across wheat and barley was high early in the harvest with some malting barley available. However, late rainfall events in December 2024 delayed harvesting and may have impacted the quality of some crops late in the harvest. Chickpea production is estimated to have reached a new record of 1.3 million tonnes, 272% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24. A 287% increase in area planted to chickpeas and strong yields have driven the estimated rise in chickpea production.

Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Victoria is estimated to fall by 31% to 7.4 million tonnes in 2024–‍ 25. This represents a 1% upward revision from the December 2024 Australian Crop Report and is now 7% below the 10-‍year average to 2023– 24 of 7.9 million tonnes. Lower production follows below to very much below average growing season rainfall in northern and western growing regions, reducing yields.

An unfavourable start to the season meant a high proportion of winter crops were sown dry, with area planted estimated to be 3.6 million hectares, 6% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24. Winter crop yields are estimated to sit 11% below the 10-‍year average, given largely unfavourable growing conditions throughout the season. Lower than expected rainfall and widespread frost events in September 2024 also affected crops, with instances of wheat and barley being cut for hay across major cropping zones in the Mallee and Wimmera. However, average to above average rainfall during October and November 2024 in the North Central and Goulburn Broken cropping regions supported grain fill and arrested any further yield declines in those areas.

Harvest activity was prolonged in some central and southern regions of Victoria due to wet conditions recorded in late November and early December 2024. Despite wet harvest conditions, overall grain quality was reportedly better than expected, with better-than-expected protein levels for wheat as well as malting percentages for barley given the seasonal conditions.

Wheat production in Victoria is estimated to have fallen by 33% to 3.5 million tonnes in 2024–‍25, now sitting 8% below the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24. Barley production is estimated to have fallen by 28% to 2.0 million tonnes, sitting 13% below the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24. Canola production is estimated to have fallen by 34% to 900 thousand tonnes, and sits in line with the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24, supported by above average area. Lentil production is estimated to have fallen by 31% to 535 thousand tonnes; however, production remains 58% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24 reflecting a 13% increase in area planted.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in South Australia is estimated to fall by 40% to 5.3 million tonnes in 2024‍–‍25, reflecting poor seasonal conditions throughout the growing season. This is slightly lower than what was forecast in the December 2024 Australian Crop Report, with production now estimated to be 34% below the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24

Rainfall received between April and November 2024 was very much below average for most winter cropping regions of South Australia, which significantly impacted yields. Late crop emergence, above average spring temperatures and several frost events further compounded the lack of in crop rainfall. Despite these extreme challenges, it has been noted that improved farming practices that conserve moisture and improve water use efficiency together with advancements in seed varieties has resulted in higher-than-expected yields considering the season.

South Australian wheat production is estimated to fall by 42% in 2024–‍25, to 2.8 million tonnes, with the average state yield 40% below the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24. Barley production is estimated to fall by 37% to 1.3 million tonnes and canola production by 43% to 325 thousand tonnes. Lentil production is estimated to be down 27% year on year but remain 36% above the 10-‍year average at 555 thousand tonnes, reflecting a 21% increase in the area planted.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Western Australia is estimated to have increased by 55% to 23.0 million tonnes in 2024–‍25, the third highest on record. This represents a 19% upward revision from the December 2024 Australian Crop Report and now sits at 34% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24 of 17.2 million tonnes. This near-record harvest reflects an estimated expansion in area planted to winter crops and above average yields.

Following a dry start to the winter cropping season, favourably timed rainfall events during winter saw growing conditions improve significantly, especially across northern cropping regions of Western Australia. Despite below average rainfall during September and October 2024, a combination of factors — warm growing conditions that led to fast crop growth, high water use efficiency, minimal frost events during the grain filling period, and lack of waterlogging in high rainfall areas — resulted in higher yields than initially forecast. The better-than-expected harvest results can also be attributed to improved farming practices and advancements in seed varieties.

Overall, the quality profile of the Western Australian wheat crop was heavily weighted to lower protein grades, with some quality downgrades due to wet harvest conditions across central and northern cropping regions.

Wheat production in Western Australia is estimated to have increased by 64% to 12.7 million tonnes in 2024–‍25, now sitting 34% above the 10-‍year average to 2023–‍24. Barley production is estimated to have reached a new record of 6 million tonnes, driven by higher area and near record yields. Despite an estimated fall in area, canola production is estimated to have increased to 2.9 million tonnes to be the third highest result on record.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES