Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 31 October 2024

For the week ending 30 October 2024, low pressure systems and a series of troughs brought showers to parts of western, northern, and eastern Australia. Rainfall totals of up to 50 millimetres were recorded across coastal New South Wales, the northern tropics, northern Western Australia, and western Tasmania. Isolated areas of south-east Queensland recorded falls of up to 100 millimetres. High pressure systems in the south kept the remainder of the country largely dry.

Across cropping regions, little to no rainfall was recorded across most western and southern growing regions. Meanwhile, much of Queensland recorded rainfall totals between 10 to 100 millimetres. With the harvest of winter crops underway, wet conditions across much of Queensland may have interrupted harvest in some areas. Little to no rainfall across southern and western cropping regions would have allowed for a largely uninterrupted harvest of winter crops.

Rainfall for the week ending 30 October 2024

Over the 8 days to 7 November 2024, low pressure systems are expected to bring showers over parts of northern and eastern Australia. Rainfall of between 10 to 50 millimetres is expected across northern Western Australian and the Northern Territory, as well as south-eastern Queensland and eastern New South Wales. In Tasmania, rainfall totals up to 100 millimetres are forecast for parts of the west. Falls of between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected in southern areas of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. High pressure systems are expected to keep much of remaining areas of Australia largely dry.

Across cropping regions, little to no rainfall expected across most areas, with the exception of north-eastern growing regions where some rainfall is expected. Rainfall totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected in Queensland, with eastern New South Wales and isolated areas of Victoria forecast to receive up to 15 millimetres.

If realised, these moderate falls across north-eastern cropping regions are likely to allow for an uninterrupted harvest of winter crops following a period of high rainfall in much of Queensland. Little to no rainfall forecast across southern Australia will provide for an uninterrupted harvest of winter crops for grain and hay where harvest has commenced. In areas which did not receive rainfall last week, another dry week will likely see further declines in grain yields and farmers will be making decisions on whether to cut these crops for hay or turn them over for livestock grazing as grain yield and relative returns for grain compared to hay continue to decline.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 31 October to 7 November 2024

The northern rainfall onset outlook provides an indication of whether the first significant rains after the dry season are likely to be earlier or later than normal. The onset occurs when the total rainfall after 1 September reaches 50 millimetres, which is considered approximately the amount of rainfall required to stimulate plant growth. The northern rainfall onset for the 2024–25 season has commenced early in central and northern areas of the Northern Territory and Western Australia, but has not yet occurred in large parts of Queensland outside of the south-east.

Northern rainfall onset date: Accumulation of 50 mm from 1 September 2024

The areas of central Western Australia and the Northern Territory that have entered the northern rainfall onset do not typically experience the necessary amount of rainfall until early November to February. In contrast, the date of onset in Queensland this season is likely to be later than the historical median.

Northern rainfall onset - All years median onset