Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 23 January 2025

In the week ending 22 January 2025, low-pressure systems and a series of troughs brought rainfall and storms to the north and east of the country, while tropical cyclone Sean brought heavy rainfall to the west. High-pressure systems kept much of central Australia dry.

• The northern tropics, including the Northern Territory and northern Western Australia recorded falls of between 25–200 millimetres. In northern Queensland, falls of between 25–100 millimetres of rainfall were observed.
• Eastern Queensland and Victoria received between 5–50 millimetres of rainfall; eastern New South Wales received between 5–100 millimetres, with up to 300 millimetres recorded in scattered coastal areas. Tasmania recorded 5–25 millimetres.
• South Australia, southern Western Australia, western Victoria, western New South Wales and central Australia recorded little to no rainfall over the period.

Rainfall totals were generally low across cropping regions:

• Southern cropping regions received little to no rainfall. This included much of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, and southwest New South Wales, which received between 0–10 millimetres.
• In the east, rainfall totals were higher, with Queensland and northern New South Wales recording between 0–25 millimetres.
• Despite the lack of rainfall across many summer cropping areas, most areas remain on track to record above average yield due to close to average soil moisture levels for this time of year.

Rainfall for the week ending 22 January 2025

Over the 8 days to 30 January 2025, low-pressure systems and troughs are expected to bring rainfall and storms over the east and north of Australia:

• Falls between 10–100 millimetres are likely for much of northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and northern Queensland. Higher rainfall totals are expected in isolated areas, with up to 150 millimetres forecast in scattered areas of far-north Australia.
• Between 5–50 millimetres are forecast for much of eastern Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria, and Tasmania.
• By contrast, a high-pressure system is expected to keep much of the south and interior of Australia largely dry, including southern Western Australia and the Northern Territory, South Australia, western New South Wales and Victoria, and south-western Queensland.

Rainfall forecasts across cropping regions over the coming week are mixed:

• Low rainfall totals are expected in southern cropping regions, including across much of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, and southern and central New South Wales (between 1–10 millimetres).
• Higher rainfall is expected in northern and eastern cropping regions, with much of Queensland and northern New South Wales likely to receive between 10–50 millimetres. Rainfall forecast for summer cropping regions in Queensland and New South Wales is likely to be sufficient to support soil moisture levels and above average summer crop yield potentials.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 23 January to 30 January 2025

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) climate drivers are currently neutral and having minimal influence on Australian rainfall. The IOD and SAM are likely to remain neutral over the coming weeks, however, indicators suggest that chances of a La Nina event are strengthening.

The most recent rainfall outlook for February 2025 provided by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that much of eastern Australia, including eastern Queensland and New South Wales, as well as parts of Western Australia are likely to see above median rainfall. For the remaining regions, rainfall is expected to be average.

• The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate model predicts a 75% chance of February rainfall totals between 50–300 millimetres across much of the northern Australia, with parts of far-north Queensland likely to see rainfall totals of up to 600 millimetres.
• Lower rainfall totals are expected across eastern areas, with much of south-eastern Queensland, eastern New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania expected to see between 5–100 millimetres. Parts of eastern New South Wales are expected to see up to 200 millimetres in isolated areas.
• In South Australia, southern Western Australia, and western New South Wales little to no rainfall is expected.

Across cropping regions, the February rainfall outlook is highly variable:

• There is a 75% chance of between 5–50 millimetres across much of New South Wales and between 25–100 millimetres in Queensland. If realised, this rainfall is likely to support above average yield prospects for summer crops and average or better levels of pasture production in affected areas.
• Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining southern cropping regions. This forecast is typical for this time of year, expected to lead to continued low levels of pasture growth and increased livestock turn-off.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring in February 2025

The Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall outlook for February to April 2025 indicates an increased probability of above average rainfall across much of the country, excluding much of the southwest.

Across cropping regions, the chance of receiving above median rainfall is between 55–75% across much of New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria. In South Australia and Western Australia, the chance of receiving above median rainfall is between 50–65%.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring January 2025 to March 2025

The rainfall outlook for February to April 2025 also includes rainfall totals which have a 75% of occurring:

• Between 200–600 millimetres are expected across much of northern Australia, including northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and Queensland. Rainfall totals greater than 600 millimetres are expected in the far-north of Australia.
• Rainfall totals between 25–200 millimetres are expected across much of the remainder of Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
• Drier conditions are expected across southern Australia, including much of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, with expected rainfall between 25–200 millimetres, with exceptions in coastal and alpine areas where greater rainfall is expected. Meanwhile, South Australia is likely to receive much lower falls of between 2–50 millimetres.

In cropping regions:

• Rainfall totals between 50–200 millimetres are forecast across much of Queensland and New South Wales, with a 75% likelihood. If realised, these forecast rainfall totals are likely to be sufficient to support late summer and early autumn pasture growth in these areas. Additionally, these expected falls are likely to provide a boost to soil moisture profiles and maintain above yield expectation for summer crops in Queensland and northern New South Wales.
• Forecast rainfall totals are lower in the south, between 25–100 millimetres with a 75% likelihood for much of Western Australia and Victoria, and between 10–50 millimetres in South Australia.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring February 2025 to April 2025