Key issues
- For the week ending 19 July 2023, a high-pressure system kept much of Australia dry. Fronts passing over southern Australia brought some rainfall to parts of south-western Western Australia and western Tasmania. Meanwhile onshore flow brought isolated falls to Australia’s east coast.
- Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of up to 25 millimetres were recorded in far west Western Australia. The rainfall recorded across Western Australia this week has likely only been enough to sustain crop and pasture growth but insufficient to build up soil moisture reserves. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions. These regions will require sufficient and timely rain in the coming weeks and months to support winter crop production, following the gradual decline in soil moisture reserves. For remaining cropping regions, the clear dry conditions would have allowed for unimpeded field access to undertake pest and weed management and fertilizer top dressing of crops and pasture (see Section 1.1).
- Highly variable rainfall globally during June has led to mixed prospects for grain and oilseed production. Average to above average rainfall has resulted in improved wheat production potential in Canada, the EU, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Türkiye. Below average rainfall and above average temperatures in recent months have negatively affected corn and soybean production across parts of Argentina, China, the US, India and Mexico. Global production conditions have improved compared to those used to formulate ABARES forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in its June 2023 edition of the Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production is currently expected to be higher than that published in early June (see Section 1.2).
- Over the 8 days to 27 July 2023, a cold front and trough are expected to bring showers to southern parts of the country early in the week. Meanwhile, a coastal trough is expected to bring some heavy falls and storms to eastern New South Wales and Queensland. A high-pressure system is expected to bring mainly dry conditions to the remainder of the country (see Section 1.3).
- Across cropping regions, rainfall totals up to 10 millimetres are expected. Western margins of the Western Australia wheatbelt are expected to receive up to 25 millimetres. If these falls eventuate as forecast, they are likely to be sufficient to support crop and pasture growth and development (see Section 1.4).
- Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 13 July 2023 and 20 July 2023 by 80 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 20 888 GL. This is 1 percent or 264 GL more than at the same time last year.
- Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $85 on 13 July 2023 to $100 on 20 July 2023.
Climate
For the week ending 19 July 2023, a high-pressure system kept much of Australia dry. Fronts passing over southern Australia brought some rainfall to parts of south-western Western Australia and western Tasmania. Meanwhile onshore flow brought isolated falls to Australia’s east coast.
Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of up to 25 millimetres were recorded in far west Western Australia. The rainfall recorded across Western Australia this week has likely only been enough to sustain crop and pasture growth but insufficient to build up soil moisture reserves. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions. These regions will require sufficient and timely rain in the coming weeks and months to support current levels of winter crop production, following a gradual decline in soil moisture reserves. For remaining cropping regions, the clear dry conditions would have allowed for unimpeded field access to undertake pest and weed management and fertilizer top dressing of crops and pasture.
Rainfall for the week ending 19 July 2023
Issued: 19/7/2023
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/
Crop production is affected by long-term trends in average rainfall and temperature, interannual climate variability, shocks during specific growth stages, and extreme weather events. Some crops are more tolerant than others to certain types of stresses, and at each growth stage, different types of stresses affect each crop species in different ways.
The precipitation anomalies and outlooks presented here give an indication of the current and future state of production conditions for the major grain and oilseed producing countries which are responsible for over 80% of global production. This is an important input to assessing the global grain supply outlook.
June precipitation percentiles and current production conditions
As of the end of June 2023, rainfall was highly variable for the world’s major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions.
In the northern hemisphere, precipitation was generally average across Canada, except for some southern production regions where it was below average. In the United States, precipitation was highly variable, ranging from above average in the northwest to well below average in the Northern Plains and the Corn Belt. Precipitation was also below average across northern areas of Europe, China and the Russian Federation, much of Mexico, and parts of Kazakhstan and central India. June precipitation was generally average to above average across the remainder of the major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions in the northern hemisphere.
In the southern hemisphere, June precipitation was generally average in South America, with northern parts of Argentina being the main exception, where it was below average. In Australia, June precipitation was average to above average across cropping regions, except for in the parts of Queensland and New South Wales where it was below average. Precipitation was generally average across the remainder of major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions in the southern hemisphere.
Global precipitation percentiles, June 2023
Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society
As of 28 June 2023, global productions were mixed for wheat, maize, and soybeans, and generally favourable for rice.
In the northern hemisphere, harvesting of winter wheat and the development of spring wheat is continuing under mixed conditions in Canada, the US, the Russian Federation and in Ukraine away from the war zone. In China, the EU, the UK and Türkiye conditions are generally favourable. In the southern hemisphere, conditions are mixed for wheat production in Argentina and Australia.
For maize, production conditions were mixed in the US, Mexico, northern China and central Ukraine due to dryness. In the EU, conditions are generally favourable following a return of rain to southern growing regions. In Brazil, the harvest for the summer-planted crop is beginning under favourable condition. In Argentina, harvest is wrapping up for the spring-planted crop and beginning for the summer-planted crop under poor conditions due to dryness throughout the season.
Conditions are mixed for rice production in India and Thailand due to late arrival of monsoonal rain. In China, harvesting of early- and sowing of late-season crop is underway under favourable conditions. Similarly, the sowing of dry- and harvesting of wet-season rice is wrapping up in Indonesia under favourable conditions. In Vietnam, harvesting of dry-season rice is ongoing and sowing of wet-season rice is beginning under favourable conditions. In the US, conditions are favourable with an increase in sown area compared to last year.
For soybeans, harvesting for both early- and late planted crops are wrapping up in Argentina with poor yields due to dry conditions throughout the growing season. Sowing is wrapping up in Canada and Ukraine under favourable conditions. In the US, an extremely dry spring and June has reduced yield prospects across much of main growing areas. In China, conditions are mixed due to high temperatures and dry conditions in the main producing areas. In India, the late arrival of monsoon has resulted in a mixed and slower than normal start to the sowing season.
Crop conditions, AMIS countries, 28 June 2023
Source: AMIS
The global climate outlook for August 2023 to October 2023 indicates that variable rainfall conditions are expected for the world's major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions. Outlooks and potential production impacts for the major grain and oilseed producing countries are presented in the table.
| Region | August - October rainfall outlook | Potential impact on production |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Below average rainfall in the north and average rainfall in the south is likely. | Below average rainfall is likely to adversely affect the heading and grain fill of wheat and planting of corn, cotton and soybeans through September and October. |
| Black Sea Region | Average rainfall is more likely in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. | Average rainfall between August and October is likely to support grain fill for spring wheat and harvesting in the north of the Black Sea Region. In the south of the Black Sea Region, average rainfall is likely to support cotton, corn and sunflower development and winter wheat and rapeseed harvesting and planting. |
| Brazil | Below average rainfall is likely across much of Brazil except for the far south where average rainfall is likely. | Average rainfall in southern Brazil is likely to benefit wheat heading, and grain fill in August and September leading up to harvest in October. However below average rainfall elsewhere is likely to adversely affect corn and soybean planting and development in September and October. |
| Canada | Average rainfall is more likely for much of Canada, especially across major production regions. | Average rainfall is likely to benefit corn, soybeans and sunflower flowering in August and support grain development through September and October. |
| China | Average to above average rainfall is more likely across China. | Average to above average rainfall is likely to support the development and harvest of cotton, rice, corn, sorghum, soybean, sunflower, groundnuts, and spring wheat. Additionally, average to above average rainfall is likely to support late rice heading in September and planting of winter wheat and rapeseed in October. |
| Europe | Average to below average rainfall is more likely. | Below average rainfall may adversely impact the yield prospects of corn, cotton and sorghum in northern Europe. Below average rainfall may also impact winter wheat and rapeseed planting in parts of northern Europe during October. |
| South Asia (India) | Average rainfall is more likely across India. | Average rainfall is likely to benefit corn, sorghum, rice, millet, groundnuts, and sunflower flowering and filling in August and September leading up to harvest in October, and cotton blooming in the south in September. |
| Southeast Asia (SEA) | Generally average to above average rainfall is more likely. | Average to above average rainfall between August and October is likely to support corn and rice filling and maturing in SEA leading up to harvest in October. |
| The United States of America | Generally average to above average rainfall is more likely for the US. | Across the east of the US average to above average rainfall is likely to benefit soybeans, sunflower and millet flowering in August and the development of these crops as well as rice, corn, sorghum and groundnuts leading up to harvest in October. Average rainfall likely to benefit the yield prospects of corn, spring wheat and soybeans in central and southern US. |
Over the 8-days to 27 July 2023, a cold front and trough are expected to bring showers to southern parts of the country early in the week. Meanwhile, a coastal trough is expected to bring some heavy falls and storms to eastern New South Wales and Queensland. A high-pressure system is expected to bring mainly dry conditions to the remainder of the country.
Across cropping regions, rainfall totals up to 10 millimetres are expected. Western margins of the Western Australia wheatbelt are expected to receive up to 25 millimetres. If these falls eventuate as forecast, they are likely to be sufficient to support crop and pasture growth and development.
Total forecast rainfall for the period 20 July 2023 to 27 July 2023
Issued 20/7/2023
Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Water
Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week
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Commodities
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