Key issues
- For the week ending 18 January 2023, a broad low-pressure trough remained active over northern Australia and resulted in widespread rainfall and thunderstorms across northern Australia. Meanwhile, onshore flow produced moderate to heavy rainfall in some areas of north-east Queensland. Large areas in the Central Coast district of Queensland received greater than 400 millimetres. However, little to no rainfall was recorded across most of the southern Australia (see section 1.1).
- The persistence of dry condition across cropping regions of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia would have continued to support the harvesting of winter crops. Across parts of southern Queensland and New South Wales, little rainfall would have allowed access for field work related to the planting and maintenance of summer crops. However, heavy rainfall across the northern Queensland would likely have negative impact on the development of summer crops (see Section 1.1).
- As of the end of December 2022, rainfall was variable for the world’s major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions. As a result, global production conditions have deteriorated compared to those used to formulate ABARES forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in its December 2022 edition of the Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production is likely to be lower than that forecast earlier in December (see Section 1.2).
- Over the 8-days to 26 January 2023, widespread rainfall across Australia’s tropical north is expected to continue under the influence of a low-pressure system and troughs. Most of central and south-western Australia will likely have clear skies and dry conditions. However, an extending cold front and associated trough are predicted to bring clouds, rainfall, and thunderstorms to the southern and south-eastern Australia (see section 1.3).
- Across most of Australian cropping regions, little to no rainfall is forecast in the next eight days. The continuation of dry conditions will likely further allow saturated soil to drain, however, a flooding risk remains for some areas. Little to no rainfall forecast across most cropping regions is likely to provide favourable conditions for summer crop planting and maintenance (see section 3).
- Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 11 January 2023 and 18 January 2023 by 143 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 23 629 GL which represents 94 percent of total capacity. This is 4 percent or 894 GL more than at the same time last year.
- Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $40 per ML on 6 January 2023 to $36 per ML on 13 January 2023. Prices are lower in the Murrumbidgee and regions above the Barmah choke due to the binding of the Murrumbidgee export limit and Barmah choke trade constraint.
Climate
For the week ending 18 January 2023, a broad low-pressure trough remained active over northern Australia and resulted in widespread rainfall and thunderstorms across northern Australia. Meanwhile, onshore flow produced moderate to heavy rainfall in parts of north-east Queensland.
Weekly rainfall totals of more than 50 millimetres were recorded in large parts of Queensland, north parts of Northern Territory and the Kimberly region in Western Australia. Areas in the Central Coast district of Queensland received greater than 400 millimetres. Weekly rainfall totals between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across scattered areas of New South Wales, eastern Victoria, South Australia, parts of southern Western Australia and western Tasmania. Little to no rainfall was recorded across much of the remainder of southern Australia.
In Australian cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 15 and 300 millimetres were recorded across much of northern Queensland. Scattered small areas of New South Wales and eastern Victoria recorder 10 to 25 millimetres. Little to no rainfall was recorded in remaining cropping regions.
The impact of flooding across the northern Queensland would have slowed sowing of summer crops, degraded some crops and damaged crop production prospects of summer crops in the Queensland. The persistence of dry conditions across cropping regions of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia will have continued to support the harvesting of winter crops. Across parts of southern Queensland and New South Wales, little rainfall would have allowed access for field work related to the planting and maintenance of summer crops. However, heavy rainfall across northern Queensland would likely have had a negative impact on the development of summer crops.
Rainfall for the week ending 18 January 2023
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/
Crop production is affected by long-term trends in average rainfall and temperature, interannual climate variability, shocks during specific growth stages, and extreme weather events (IPCC 2012). Some crops are more tolerant than others to certain types of stresses, and at each growth stage, different types of stresses affect each crop species in different ways.
The precipitation anomalies and outlooks presented here give an indication of the current and future state of production conditions for the major grain and oilseed producing countries which are responsible for over 80% of global production. This is an important input to assessing the global grain supply outlook.
December precipitation percentiles and current production conditions
As of the end of December 2022, rainfall was variable for the world’s major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions.
In the northern hemisphere, precipitation was below average across parts of western and southern Central Asia, Italy, Greece, Turkey, south-western Canada, central areas and the south-west of the Russian Federation, as well as small areas of north-eastern United States. Precipitation was above average for parts of the Russian Federation, parts of northern and south-western United States, western and southern Canada, much of Spain and Portugal, as well as northern Ukraine and Poland. Precipitation was close to average across the remainder of the major northern hemisphere grain‑producing and oilseed-producing regions.
In the southern hemisphere, December precipitation was below average for Paraguay, northern Argentina and parts of eastern Australia. Precipitation was above average for central Brazil and South Africa. Precipitation was close to average across the remainder of major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions.
Global precipitation percentiles, December 2022
Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society
The global climate outlook for January to March 2023 indicates that variable rainfall conditions are expected for the world's major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions. Outlooks and potential production impacts for the major grain and oilseed producing countries are presented in the table.
Rainfall outlook and potential impact on the future state of production conditions between January to March 2023
| Region | December to February rainfall outlook | Potential impact on production |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Below average rainfall is expected in north-eastern Argentina between January and March 2023, while above average rainfall is expected in the north-west and south of the country. | Below average rainfall is likely to adversely affect flowering of soybeans, sorghum, rice, and millet in the February. The dry conditions may also negatively impact yield potentials of those crops. |
| Black Sea Region | Below average precipitation is forecast for eastern Turkey and southern Kazakhstan. However, above average precipitation is expected across eastern and central parts of the Russian Federation between January and March 2023. | The above average rainfall conditions are likely to support the development of winter wheat and canola, and planting of corn, cotton and sunflower across Russia. However, below average precipitation in parts of Turkey and Kazakhstan may adversely affect the development and planting of these crops. |
| Brazil | Above average rainfall is expected in northern Brazil and parts of central Brazil between January to March 2023. Some southern areas of Brazil are expected to receive below-average rainfall. | Above average rainfall in northern and central Brazil will benefit the development of soybeans,. cotton, rice, sorghum, millet, sunflower, peanuts, and corn prior to the harvesting of some crops beginning in March 2023. Below average rainfall in the south is likely to adversely affect the development and harvesting of crops in that region. |
| Canada | Above average precipitation is more possible in the southern half of Canada between January to March 2023. Below average rainfall is more likely in the coastal area of northern Canada. | Through January, February and March, winter wheat and canola will progress from dormant to heading. Above average rainfall will likely provide sufficient snowpack to prevent winterkill of winter wheat and canola and support vegetative growth and heading. |
| China | Below average rainfall is expected across western and south-eastern China in January to March 2023, while above average rainfall is possible in the north-eastern China. | Through January and February, winter wheat and canola will remain dormant. Below average rainfall may increase the risk of winterkill due to limited snowpack during winter. |
| Europe | Below average precipitation is more likely for most of Europe while above average precipitation is more expected in Switzerland, northern Italy, Romania, Finland, and northwest tips of Sweden between January to March 2023. | Below average rainfall may limit snowpack in parts of central Europe, increasing the risk of winterkill for winter wheat and canola. Meanwhile, above average rainfall in southern Europe should provide favourable conditions for winter wheat. |
| South Asia (India) | Above average rainfall is expected in far southern India while below average rainfall is expected in the southeast of the northern mountains and plains and in the east of the Deccan Plateau of India. | Below average rainfall in much India may negatively impact vegetative growth and heading of winter wheat and canola between January and February. In the far south, winter crops would be expected to benefit from above average rainfall. |
| Southeast Asia (SEA) | Above average rainfall is likely across much of northern maritime SEA and Malay Peninsula between January to March 2023, particularly in the Philippines. Southern mainland SEA will likely experience below - to near-average rainfall. | Above average rainfall in SEA likely supports vegetative growth for corn and rice throughout January to February. However, excessive rainfall may result in flooding and crop damage. Below average rainfall for southern mainland SEA may negatively impact the development of spring rice. |
| The United States of America | Above average precipitation is more likely for the northern half and large areas in the east parts of US while below average precipitation is more likely across much of the southern half the US. | Above average precipitation expected across the north is likely to provide sufficient snow cover through winter to protect wheat and canola through dormancy. Below average rainfall may adversely impact crop development and planting in the southern. |
Over the 8-days to 26 January 2023, widespread rainfall across Australia’s tropical north is expected to continue under the influence of low-pressure system and troughs. Most of central and south-western Australia will likely have clear skies and dry conditions in the next eight days. However, an extending cold front and associated trough are predicted to bring clouds, rainfall, and thunderstorms to the southern and south-eastern Australia.
Rainfall totals exceeding 10 millimetres are expected across Cape York, the northeast coast area and the south of Queensland, north-eastern and central eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, the north of the Northern Territory, and the Kimberley and north-western Western Australia, as well as most of Tasmania. Rainfall of more than 100 millimetres is forecast the far north and north-eastern coast area of Cape York, and small area of north-eastern New South Wales. Little to no rainfall is forecast for the remaining area of Australia for the next eight days.
Across most of Australian cropping regions, little to no rainfall is forecast in the next eight days. However, rainfall between 10 and 50 millimetres is expected for the south-western and southern Queensland and northern New South Wales.
Low rainfall in flood-affected cropping regions of northern Queensland is expected to allow floodwaters to recede, reduce the risk of waterlogging and improve the access to fields for planting activities. The continuation of dry conditions in flood-affected cropping regions of south-western New South Wales and western Victoria will likely further allow saturated soil to drain. Little to no rainfall forecast across most other cropping regions will provide favourable conditions for summer crop planting and maintenance. However, major flooding has been continuing across the Murray Darling Basin. A flood risk exists in some areas from the cold front bringing thunderstorms in the next eight days.
Total forecast rainfall for the period 19 January to 26 January 2023
This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Water
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