Key issues
- For the week ending 16 March 2022, low-pressure troughs across northern and eastern Australia resulted in moderate rainfall. The east coast low-pressure system that resulted in heavy rainfall and flooding across eastern Australia in recent weeks moved offshore. In the south, high-pressure systems resulted in clear, dry conditions for large areas of central and western Australia.
- A second week of dry conditions across much of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland has likely allowed harvesting activities of early sown summer crops to resume. The wet conditions in previous weeks have caused grain sprouting in a small proportion of the crop awaiting harvest. Rainfall across northern cropping regions of Queensland has improved soil moisture conditions over the last 7-days and will support late sown summer grain crops through establishment and vegetative growth.
- Below average rainfall globally during February is likely to result in lower-than-expected winter wheat production potential in the United States, parts of Europe and the Ukraine. The conflict in Ukraine has generated high levels of uncertainty around wheat production for 2022. Below average rainfall during February has also negatively affected corn and soybean production across parts of Argentina and Brazil. This is providing, a deterioration in global production conditions compared to those seen back in January 2022, that were used to formulate ABARES forecasts of global grain supplies and the impact on world prices in its March 2022 edition of Agricultural commodities. As a result, global grain and oilseed production is likely to be lower than that forecast in March.
- Over the 8-days to 24 March 2022, low-pressure troughs are expected to bring rainfall to eastern and northern Australia. Meanwhile, high pressure systems are expected to bring mostly dry conditions to the remainder of western, central and southern Australia. Recent rainfall across northern New South Wales and Queensland has boosted soil moisture levels which will support establishment and vegetative growth of later sown summer crops during this period of little forecast rainfall.
- Water storage in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 139 gigalitres (GL) between 9 March 2022 and 15 March 2022. The current volume of water held in storage is 22,099 GL, which represents 88 per cent of total capacity. This is 68% or 8,964 GL more than at the same time last year.
- Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $70 per ML on 25 February 2022 to $67 per ML on 4 March 2022. Prices are lower in the Goulburn-Broken, Murrumbidgee and regions above the Barmah choke due to the binding of the Goulburn intervalley trade limit, Murrumbidgee export limit and Barmah choke trade constraint.
Climate
For the week ending 16 March 2022, low-pressure troughs across northern and eastern Australia resulted in moderate rainfall. The east coast low-pressure system that resulted in heavy rainfall and flooding across eastern Australia in recent weeks moved offshore. In the south, high-pressure systems resulted in clear, dry conditions for large areas of central and western Australia.
Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across north-eastern and western New South Wales, eastern and south-western Queensland, parts of Victoria, eastern South Australia, south-western and northern parts of Western Australia, the north of the Northern Territory and parts of Tasmania. Rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded in parts of eastern and northern Queensland and scattered areas of the Northern Territory. Remaining parts of Australia received little to no rainfall.
In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across isolated parts of New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, as well as northern Queensland. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in remaining parts of New South Wales, much of southern Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.
A second week of dry conditions across much of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland has likely allowed harvesting activities of early sown summer crops to resume. The wet conditions in previous weeks have caused grain sprouting in a small proportion of the crop awaiting harvest. Rainfall across northern cropping regions of Queensland has improved soil moisture conditions over the last 7-days and will support late sown summer grain crops through establishment and vegetative growth.
Rainfall for the week ending 16 March 2022
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/
Crop production is affected by long-term trends in average rainfall and temperature, interannual climate variability, shocks during specific growth stages, and extreme weather events (IPCC 2012). Some crops are more tolerant than others to certain types of stresses, and at each growth stage, different types of stresses affect each crop species in different ways.
The precipitation anomalies and outlooks presented here give an indication of the current and future state of production conditions for the major grain and oilseed producing countries which are responsible for over 80% of global production. This is an important input to assessing the global grain supply outlook.
January precipitation percentiles and current production conditions
As of the end of February 2022, rainfall was mixed for the world’s major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions.
In the northern hemisphere, precipitation was below average in the central and western United States, southern Kazakhstan, western Europe, southern Russia, eastern Ukraine, northern China and parts of eastern Canada. Precipitation was above average for north-eastern United States, the Volga district of the Russian Federation, central and western Canada, southern China and northern Europe. Precipitation was close to average across the remainder of the major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions in the northern hemisphere.
In the southern hemisphere, February precipitation was below average in northern Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, southern Brazil and western Australia. Precipitation was close to average across the remainder of major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions in the southern hemisphere.
Global precipitation percentiles, February 2022
As at 28 February 2022 global production conditions were mixed for the production of wheat, corn, rice and soybean.
In the northern hemisphere production conditions for wheat have been mixed. Climatic conditions have been favourable for wheat development in India, the Russian Federation, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Production is mixed in Canada, the European Union and the United States due to dryness in some areas. It has been reported that, in China extremely heavy rainfall late last year delayed the planting of about one-third of the normal wheat acreage, with the condition of wheat seedlings at the start of the northern hemisphere spring being referred to as the worst ever. This is likely to restrict overall winter wheat production levels during the 2022–23 season. The conflict in Ukraine is expected to restrict access to inputs and limit field access, which has generated high levels of uncertainty for the wheat production outlook.
Conditions for corn in Argentina for early- and late-planted crop development are below average to poor due to drought and high temperatures affecting yield potential. However, recent rainfall has benefited late-sown crops. In Brazil, hot and dry conditions have negatively impacted yields for spring-planted crops in the south. Conditions were favourable in Brazil for sowing the summer-planted crop. In India, Mexico and South Africa, conditions were generally favourable for crop development.
Conditions were favourable for transplanting of Rabi rice in India, which is nearing completion. Harvesting conditions were favourable for early sown wet-season rice in Indonesia as well as late sowing of wet-season rice. In the Philippines and Thailand, conditions were favourable for the panicle formation and grain filling stages of dry-season rice. Conditions were mixed for Vietnam, with sowing of dry-season rice in the north under favourable conditions but harvesting in the south was progressing under mixed conditions. In Brazil, conditions are under watch due to low irrigated water availability and high temperatures.
Conditions for soybeans in Argentina have improved but remain below average. Early-planted and late-planted crops have benefitted from recent rainfall but have suffered from prolonged drought and high temperatures earlier in the season. In Brazil, harvesting is ongoing under favourable conditions in the central-west, south-east and northern regions. However, soybean crops in the southern regions are entering reproductive stages under hot dry conditions, with a reduction in yields expected.
Crop conditions, AMIS countries, 28 February 2022
Source: AMIS
The global climate outlook for April 2022 to June 2022 indicates that mixed rainfall conditions are expected for the world's major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions. Outlooks and potential production impacts for the major grain and oilseed producing countries are presented in the table.
| Region | March-May rainfall outlook | Potential impact on production |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Below average rainfall is more likely across major production areas of Argentina between April and June 2022. | Below average rainfall is expected to adversely affect the development and yield potential of sorghum, rice, millet, soybeans, corn, sunflower, cotton and nuts, and the planting of wheat. |
| Black Sea Region | Below average rainfall is forecast for southern parts of Kazakhstan and much of Turkey. Ukraine is likely to receive above average rainfall, while the Russian Federation is more likely to record close to average rainfall between April and June 2022. | Below average rainfall in parts of Kazakhstan and Turkey may adversely affect winter wheat and canola development, as well as cotton, corn and sunflower planting from April 2022. Average or better rainfall across Ukraine and the Russian Federation is likely to support similar crops in the south and the planting and development of spring wheat planting in the north from April 2022. |
| Brazil | Above average rainfall is more likely across central and western Brazil and below average rainfall is more likely across much of southern Brazil between April and June 2022. | Above average rainfall across central and western Brazil is likely to support the development of cotton and corn but may impede soybean harvesting. Below average rainfall in the south may support the maturing and harvesting of rice, sorghum, millet, sunflower, soybeans, cotton, nuts and corn, but may delay the planting of wheat in May 2022. |
| Canada | Below average rainfall is forecast for southern parts of the Canadian prairies, while average rainfall is more likely across remaining parts of Canada between April and June 2022. | Below average rainfall is likely to negatively impact winter wheat development in Canada from April 2022, as well as the planting and establishment of spring wheat, canola, corn, soybeans and sunflower from May 2022. |
| China | Above average rainfall is more likely across much of central China and below average rainfall is more likely across isolated parts of northern and south-eastern China. | Above average rainfall across much of China is likely to support the development of winter wheat and canola and the planting and development of early rice, single rice, cotton, spring wheat, corn, sorghum, soybeans, sunflower and nuts from April 2022. |
| Europe | Above average rainfall is more likely for northern Europe, and below average rainfall is more likely for southern and eastern Europe. Average rainfall is expected for remaining parts of Europe between April and June 2022. | Above average rainfall across much of northern Europe is likely to support winter wheat and canola development and the planting and development of corn, soybeans and sunflower. Below average rainfall in the south and eastern Europe may adversely affect the development of winter wheat, corn and cotton between April and June 2022. |
| South Asia (India) | Above average rainfall is more likely across much of India, although below average rainfall is more likely in the north-west. | Above average rainfall may delay the harvesting of wheat and canola, as well as planting of cotton, corn, groundnuts, millet, rice, sorghum and sunflower between April and June 2022. |
| Southeast Asia (SEA) | Above average rainfall is more likely for most SEA countries. The rainfall outlook is mixed for Indonesia, with scattered areas of below and above average rainfall more likely between April and June 2022. | Average or better rainfall across most of Southeast Asia is likely to benefit corn and rice planting, development and harvesting. Below average rainfall in parts of Indonesia may adversely impact rice, corn and soybean production. |
| The United States of America | Above average rainfall is more likely for parts of the north-eastern US and below average rainfall is more likely for the southern and western parts of the US between April and June 2022. | Average or better rainfall in the north-eastern US is likely to support winter wheat as it comes out of dormancy, as well as the planting and development of spring wheat, canola, corn, cotton, rice, soybeans and nuts. Below average rainfall in the southern US may adversely impact the development of winter wheat and the planting and development of corn, cotton, nuts, rice and soybeans. |
Over the 8-days to 24 March 2022, low-pressure troughs are expected to bring rainfall to eastern and northern Australia. Meanwhile, high pressure systems are expected to bring mostly dry conditions to the remainder of western, central and southern Australia.
Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for eastern New South Wales, northern parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory, much of southern Victoria, as well as parts of northern and southern Western Australia and most of Tasmania. Rainfall in excess of 100 millimetres is expected for parts of northern Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
In Australian cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected across eastern New South Wales, parts of Victoria and southern Western Australia. Little to no rainfall is forecast for all remaining cropping regions during the next 8-days.
The dry conditions forecast across northern New South Wales and southern Queensland will allow for the continued harvesting of early sown summer crops. Recent rainfall has boosted soil moisture levels which will support establishment and vegetative growth of later sown summer crops during this period of little forecast rainfall. For early sown summer crops with longer growth periods, such as cotton, root zone soil moisture levels across most summer cropping regions are average to above average and will help support them through critical stages of flowering and boll filling.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 17 March to 24 March 2022
Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Water
Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week
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Commodities
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