Key issues
- For the week ending 13 September 2023, frontal systems brought showers to southern parts of the country and onshore winds resulted in some in showers in northeast coastal Queensland. A high-pressure system kept the remainder of the country largely dry and clear.
- Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of up to 50 millimetres were recorded in central South Australia and in parts of eastern New South Wales. Falls of up to 15 millimetres were recorded in western South Australia and parts of southern Victoria. Remaining cropping areas received minimal rainfall of up to 5 millimetres. Given the lack of rainfall across most cropping regions in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, these regions are continuing to see a gradual decline in soil moisture reserves. This represents an increased risk of declines in crop yields if follow-up rainfall is not received in the next few weeks (see Section 1.1).
- Drier than normal conditions are expected in October for large areas of Australia. Across cropping regions, during October there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres across eastern margins of New South Wales, eastern Queensland, and southern Western Australia. October rainfall totals are expected to be below 10 millimetres for the remaining cropping regions. Given the lack of rainfall in recent weeks and declining soil moisture levels across large areas of eastern and southern Australia, expected low rainfall totals continues represent a significant downside production risk for both winter and summer crop production as well as pasture growth (see Section 1.3).
- Maximum temperature predictions for the week ending 24 September 2023 indicates warmer than average conditions are expected across much of southern Australia, with the highest maximum temperature anomalies expected across south-eastern parts of the country. Across cropping regions, much of New South Wales and parts of southern Queensland are expected to experience maximum temperature up to 5°C above average for this time of year. With lack of rainfall recently, declining soil moisture levels and a lack of forecast rainfall, these high temperatures will likely contribute to increase moisture stress to the winter crops and spring pastures (see Section 1.4).
- Over the next 8-days, a frontal system is expected to bring isolated showers to southern parts of the country. A trough northwest of Australia will generate warmer conditions across the country (see Section 1.5).
- Across most cropping regions, minimal rainfall totals of up to 5 millimetres are expected in southern Western Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. Following a dry start to September in many regions and given the current well below average levels of soil moisture, crops and pastures in Queensland, northern New South Wales and northern Western Australia will be disposed to heat and moisture stress, negatively affecting production potential (see Section 1.5).
- Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased between 7 September 2023 and 14 September 2023 by 227 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 21 043 GL. This is 3 percent or 548 GL less than at the same time last year.
- Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $173 on 7 September 2023 to $192 on 14 September 2023. Prices are lower in the Goulburn-Broken due to the binding of the Goulburn intervalley trade limit.
Climate
For the week ending 13 September 2023, frontal systems brought showers to southern parts of the country. A high-pressure system kept the remainder of the country largely dry and clear.
Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of up to 50 millimetres were recorded in central South Australia and in parts of eastern New South Wales. Meanwhile falls of up to 15 millimetres were recorded in western South Australia and parts of southern Victoria. Remaining cropping areas received minimal rainfall of up to 5 millimetres. Given the lack of rainfall across most cropping regions in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, these regions are continuing to see a gradual decline in soil moisture reserves. This represents an increased risk of declines in crop yields if follow-up rainfall is not received in the next few weeks.
Rainfall for the week ending 13 September 2023
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/
The climate drivers with the largest potential impact on Australia’s climate patterns are the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). These climate drivers are likely to influence pasture growth across southern Australia and the growth and yield prospects for winter crops.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse is currently indiscernible. At this time of the year MJO has little influence on northern Australia rainfall.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. Unlike a number of international meteorological organisations, the Bureau of Meteorology still has not officially declared that an El Niño event is underway. This is largely due to definitional differences, but what both the Bureau of Meteorology and most international meteorological organisations agree on is that warmer and drier conditions are expected across southern and eastern Australia from October to December. The sea surface temperature continues to warm over the tropical Pacific and remains above El Niño thresholds.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been recorded above the positive phase threshold for the past four weeks. With a recent increase in the index magnitude, a positive IOD is very likely. A positive IOD typically decreases spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia and can increase the drying influence of El Niño.
Weekly sea surface temperature anomaly
These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamic (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal, and longer-lead climate outlooks. For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest rainfall outlook for October 2023 indicates drier than average conditions are expected across large areas of northern, eastern and southern Australia.
The ACCESS-S climate model suggests that for October 2023, there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 10 and 50 millimetres across eastern New South Wales, southeast Queensland, southern Victoria and Western Australia, and across Tasmania. Rainfall totals in excess of 100 millimetres are expected across western Tasmania and alpine regions of Victoria.
Across cropping regions, there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres across eastern margins of New South Wales, eastern Queensland, and southern Western Australia. October rainfall totals are expected to be below 10 millimetres for the remaining cropping regions.
These relatively low expected rainfall totals continue to represent a significant downside production risk for both winter and summer crop production as well as pasture growth, particularly given the lack of rainfall in recent weeks and declining soil moisture levels across large areas of eastern and southern Australia.
Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring in October 2023
The rainfall outlook for October to December 2023 suggests that there is close to equal chances of above or below median rainfall for the central and northern parts of Western Australia, much of Northern Territory and parts of central Queensland. However, below median rainfall is more likely across much of the remainder of the country.
Across cropping regions, below median rainfall is more likely for most areas through the October to December period.
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall October to December 2023
The outlook for October to December 2023 suggests there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 25 and 200 millimetres across much of New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, and across parts of South Australia and Western Australia. Rainfall totals in excess of 200 millimetres are forecast for alpine regions of Victoria and New South Wales, western Tasmania and the tropical north of the Northern Territory.
There is a 75% chance of receiving between 25 and 200 millimetres across most winter cropping regions, except for northern and central cropping regions in Western Australia where falls are expected to be below 25 millimetres. If the falls are realised where expected, it may be sufficient to support close to average plant growth, in areas with average or better levels of soil moisture.
Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring October to December 2023
Maximum temperature predictions for the week ending 24 September 2023 indicates warmer than average conditions are expected across much of southern Australia, with the highest maximum temperature anomalies expected across south-eastern parts of the country. Across cropping regions, much of New South Wales and parts of southern Queensland is expected to experience maximum temperature up to 5°C above average for this time of year.
These well above average predicted temperatures, in addition to the lack of recent rainfall, declining soil moisture levels and a lack of forecast rainfall (see Section 1.5) will likely contribute to increase moisture stress to the winter crops and spring pastures. The combination of reduced crop prospects and strong fodder prices may be providing producers in regions with declining grain yield potentials with a strong incentive to cut some crops that were planted for grain production for hay. In some regions, particularly in Queensland and northern New South Wales, some crops may not have produced sufficient biomass to warrant fodder conservation and may instead be grazed off to allow for economic return to some farmers.
Predicted maximum temperature anomaly for 18 to 24 September 2023
Over the 8-days to 21 September 2023, a frontal system is expected to bring isolated showers to southern parts of Australia. A high-pressure system is expected to bring mainly dry conditions to the remainder of the country. A trough northwest of Australia will generate warmer conditions across the country.
Across cropping regions, minimal rainfall totals of up to 5 millimetres are expected in southern Western Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. Following a dry start to September in many regions and given the current well below average levels of soil moisture, crops and pastures in Queensland, northern New South Wales and northern Western Australia will be disposed to heat and moisture stress, negatively affecting production potential.
Total forecast rainfall for the period 14 September 2023 to 21 September 2023
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