Key issues
- For the week ending 12 July 2023, a high-pressure system kept much of Australia dry. Fronts passing over southern Australia brought rainfall to parts of south-western Western Australia, southern South Australia, Victoria and alpine regions of New South Wales, as well as across much of Tasmania.
- Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of up to 25 millimetres were recorded in scattered areas in the far east of Western Australia and Victoria, much of South Australia and along south-eastern margins of New South Wales. Lighter falls of between 5 and 10 millimetres were recorded across much of southern New South Wales, and southern and western Victoria. These falls have maintained average to above average levels of upper layer soil moisture in eastern cropping regions, supporting the growth of crops and pastures. Meanwhile, in Western Australia, large areas of below average root zone soil moisture were evident as of 10 July 2023. This would imply a lack of recent effective rainfall to support crop and pasture growth and a drawdown of soil moisture reserves. These regions will require sufficient and timely rain in the coming weeks to support current levels of winter crop production (see Section 1.1).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO outlook is at El Niño ALERT. Sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific have reached the El Niño thresholds but atmospheric indicators have returned to neutral range. There is also a strong possibility of a positive IOD event developing this winter. A positive IOD can suppress winter and spring rainfall over much of Australia, potentially exacerbating the drying effect of El Niño (see Section 1.2).
- Across cropping regions, during August there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres across southern and eastern New South Wales, and much of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Below 10 millimetres are expected in the remaining cropping regions. During August to October 2023, below median rainfall is likely across cropping regions. There is 75% chance of receiving between 25 and 100 millimetres across most winter cropping regions, except for in Queensland where falls are expected to be below 25 millimetres. These falls are likely to be sufficient to support close to average plant growth. However, in areas with low soil moisture, such as Queensland and northern New South Wales these probable low three-month rainfall totals are unlikely to be sufficient to sustain average levels of crop and pasture production. Particularly as we enter the early months of spring, with higher temperatures and increased water demand for crops and pastures (see Section 1.3).
- Over the 8 days to 20 July 2023, a high-pressure system will keep most of the country dry. A cold front will bring showers up to 50 millimetres to far south-western parts of Western Australia, southern South Australia and Victoria and up to 150 millimetres are expected in Tasmania (see Section 1.4).
- Across cropping regions, rainfall totals up to 10 millimetres are expected in southern New South Wales and across Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. If these falls eventuate as forecast, they are likely to maintain current levels soil moisture and support crop and pasture growth and development. Dry conditions are expected in the remaining cropping regions (see Section 1.4).
- Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased between 6 July 2023 and 13 July 2023 by 60 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 20 937 GL. This is 1 percent or 196 GL more than at the same time last year.
- Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $15 on 6 July 2023 to $85 on 13 July 2023.
Climate
For the week ending 12 July 2023, a high-pressure system kept much of Australia dry. Fronts passing over southern Australia brought rainfall to parts of south-western Western Australia, southern South Australia, Victoria and alpine regions of New South Wales, as well as across much of Tasmania.
Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of up to 25 millimetres were recorded in scattered areas in the far east of Western Australia and Victoria, much of South Australia and along south-eastern margins of New South Wales. Lighter falls of between 5 and 10 millimetres were recorded across much of southern New South Wales, and southern and western Victoria. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions. These falls have maintained average to above average levels of upper layer soil moisture in eastern cropping regions, supporting the growth of crops and pastures.
Meanwhile, in Western Australia large areas of below average root zone soil moisture were evident as of 10 July 2023. This would imply a lack of recent effective rainfall to support crop and pasture growth and a drawdown of soil moisture reserves. These regions will require sufficient and timely rain in the coming weeks to support current levels of winter crop production.
Rainfall for the week ending 12 July 2023
Issued: 12/7/2023
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/
The climate drivers with the largest potential impact on Australia’s climate patterns are the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). These climate drivers are likely to influence pasture growth across southern Australia and the growth and yield prospects for winter crops.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse is currently over the Western Pacific and is forecast to become indiscernible in the coming days. At this time of the year MJO has little influence on northern Australia rainfall.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO outlook is at El Niño ALERT, indicating that there is a 70% chance of an El Niño developing in 2023. Oceanic indicators are measured in terms of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which have warmed to El Niño thresholds. For the week ending 18 June, the SST were warmer than average over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with anomalies over 4°C in the far east. All models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the likelihood of further warming and the warm SSTs will remain above El Niño thresholds at least into the beginning of southern hemisphere summer.
Atmospheric indicators are measured in terms of the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, called Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the direction and strength of the trade winds and cloudiness at the date line. Some atmospheric indicators such as the SOI have shifted towards El Niño thresholds. For the period ending 18 June 2023, the 30-day SOI was -14.1, the 60-day SOI was -10.7, and the 90-day SOI was -7.4. The gradual decrease in both the 30-day and 90-day SOI have entered the El-Niño threshold. However, winds, clouds and broadscale pressure patterns indicate that the ocean and atmosphere are yet to reinforce each other, as occurs during El Niño events.
Difference from average sea surface temperature observations 12 June to 18 June 2023
30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values ending 19 June 2023
All international climate model surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicate the SST anomaly values will pass El Niño thresholds during winter and remain above El Niño threshold levels through spring and at least to the beginning of southern hemisphere summer.
International climate model outlooks for the ENSO in NINO 3.4 region
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral with index value of 0°C for the week ending 18 June. All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that thresholds values for a positive IOD event are likely to be reached this winter. A positive IOD can supress winter and spring rainfall over much of central and south-eastern Australia, potentially exacerbating the drying effect of El Niño.
International climate model outlook for the Indian Ocean Dipole
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently neutral and is forecast to remain neutral for the next three weeks. A neutral SAM has little influence on Australian climate.
Southern Annular Mode (SAM) daily index
These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamic (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal, and longer-lead climate outlooks. For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest rainfall outlook for August 2023 indicates drier than average conditions are expected across much of Australia.
The ACCESS-S climate model suggests that there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 10 and 50 millimetres across eastern and southern New South Wales, scattered areas of coastal Queensland, much of Victoria and Tasmania, southern South Australia, and southwest Western Australia. Rainfall totals in excess of 100 millimetres are expected across western Tasmania, far southwest Western Australia and alpine areas of Victoria.
Across cropping regions, there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres across southern and eastern New South Wales, and much of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. August rainfall totals are expected to be below 10 millimetres in the remaining cropping regions.
Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring in August 2023
The rainfall outlook for August to October 2023 suggests that below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia. However, there is close to equal chances of above or below median rainfall for parts of northern and central Western Australia, coastal New South Wales and western Tasmania. Above median rainfall is likely in the Queensland tropics.
Across cropping regions, below median rainfall is more likely through August to October period.
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall August to October 2023
The outlook for August to October 2023 suggests there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 25 and 100 millimetres across much of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, parts of south-eastern and coastal Queensland, and southern parts of South Australia and Western Australia. Rainfall totals in excess of 200 millimetres are forecast for alpine regions of Victoria and New South Wales, far southwest of Western Australia and western Tasmania.
There is a 75% chance of receiving between 25 and 100 millimetres across most winter cropping regions, except for northern cropping regions in Queensland where falls are expected to be below 25 millimetres. These falls are likely to be sufficient to support close to average plant growth. However, in areas with low soil moisture, such as Queensland and northern New South Wales these probable low three-month rainfall totals are unlikely to be sufficient to sustain average levels of crop and pasture production. Particularly as we enter the early months of spring, with higher temperatures and increased water demand for crops and pastures.
Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring August to October 2023
The temperature outlook for August to October 2023 indicates that maximum temperatures across northern Australia, central South Australia, coastal east, Victoria and Tasmania are likely to be close to the 1990–2012 average (-1°C to +1°C). Meanwhile maximum temperatures are expected to be warmer than average (above +1°C) across much of the remainder of southern Australia. Minimum temperatures are expected to be close to the 1990–2012 average (-1°C to +1°C) across most of Australia. The night-time temperatures in central parts of Western Australia are likely to be warmer that average (above +1°C).
Predicted maximum temperature anomaly for August to October 2023
Predicted minimum temperature anomaly for August to October 2023
Over the 8-days to 20 July 2023, a high-pressure system will keep most of the country dry. A cold front will bring showers up to 50 millimetres to far south-western parts of Western Australia, southern South Australia and Victoria and up to 150 millimetres are expected in Tasmania.
Across cropping regions, rainfall totals up to 10 millimetres are expected in southern New South Wales and across Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. If these falls eventuate as forecast, they are likely to maintain current levels soil moisture and support crop and pasture growth and development. Dry conditions are expected in the remaining cropping regions.
Total forecast rainfall for the period 13 July 2023 to 20 July 2023
Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Water
Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week
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Commodities
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