Key issues
- For the week ending 31 August 2022, onshore flow brought moderate rainfall to parts of Queensland, while a low-pressure system and associated cold fronts brought light to moderate rainfall to south-eastern Australia. Meanwhile, high-pressure systems over remaining parts of the country resulted in clear, dry conditions.
- Moderate rainfalls across central New South Wales over the past week has likely seen a continuation of waterlogging in low lying areas, given rootzone soil moisture levels are already well above average. Affected crops have already struggled due to exceptionally wet conditions thus far in the season. Moreover, the wet conditions across Australian cropping regions over recent weeks have limited field access for disease management and top dressing. The wet conditions have increased fungal disease pressure for winter crops, which may negatively impact yield potentials if not managed. Mouse populations will also start to increase, presenting a further risk of crop damage.
- Rainfall during August 2022 was above average for Australia as a whole. Rainfall was above average to extremely high for much of the eastern and northern Australia, the south-west of Western Australia, as well as parts of South Australia and much of Tasmania. However, rainfall was extremely low to below average for isolated parts of eastern Queensland, the south-east of Western Australia, and parts of the Northern Territory.
- Lower layer soil moisture for August 2022 was well above average to extremely high for this time of year across eastern and central New South Wales, large areas of eastern, central and northern Queensland, parts of northern and much of south-western Western Australia, and scattered areas of eastern Victoria and the north of the Northern Territory and South Australia. Average or better soil moisture levels in most cropping regions and pastoral districts, and the favourable rainfall outlook for spring, is likely to provide sufficient plant available water availability to achieve current winter and summer crop production forecasts for 2022–23.
- Over the 8-days to 8 September 2022, troughs and low-pressure systems are forecast to draw down moist, tropical air, resulting in showers across central, western and eastern Australia. A cold front is expected to bring isolated rainfall to parts of southern Australia. The moderate rainfall forecast across cropping regions in northern New South Wales and southern and central Queensland will increase waterlogging risks across low-lying areas. These wet conditions will prolong the inability to access fields for disease management and top dressing.
- Water storage in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 124 gigalitres (GL) between 24 August 2022 and 31 August 2022. The current volume of water held in storage is 23,331 GL, which represents 92% of total capacity. This is 12% or 2,437 GL more than at the same time last year.
- Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $113 per ML on 25 August 2022 to $60 per ML on 1 September 2022. Prices are lower in the Goulburn-Broken and regions above the Barmah choke due to the binding of the Goulburn intervalley trade limit and Barmah choke trade constraint.
Climate
For the week ending 31 August 2022, onshore flow brought moderate rainfall to parts of Queensland, while a low-pressure system and associated cold fronts brought light to moderate rainfall to south-eastern Australia. Meanwhile, high-pressure systems over remaining parts of the country resulted in clear, dry conditions.
Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of southern and central New South Wales, central, western and northern Queensland, much of Victoria, isolated parts of the south of South Australia and Western Australia, as well as isolated parts of central Northern Territory and western Tasmania. Rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded in alpine areas of Victoria, parts of central and north-eastern Queensland, and the east of the Northern Territory. Remaining parts of Australia received little to no rainfall.
In Australian cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across southern and central New South Wales, parts of northern Queensland and most of Victoria. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions for the week ending 31 August 2022.
Moderate rainfalls across central New South Wales over the past week has likely seen a continuation of waterlogging in low lying areas given rootzone soil moisture levels are already well above average. Affected crops have already struggled due to exceptionally wet conditions thus far in the season. Moreover, the wet conditions across some cropping regions over recent weeks have limited field access for disease management and top dressing. Mostly dry conditions across other Australian cropping regions over the past week will have allowed soil moisture levels to subside reducing the risk of waterlogging, with parts of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia having well above average soil moisture levels.
The wet conditions have increased fungal disease pressure for winter crops, which may negatively impact yield potentials if not managed. As we enter spring, mouse populations will also start to increase, presenting a further risk of crop damage. Following a large crop in 2021, an abundance of seed will support mouse populations through spring, necessitating baiting in high risk areas.
Rainfall for the week ending 31 August 2022
Rainfall during August 2022 was above average for Australia as a whole. Rainfall was above average to extremely high for much of the eastern and northern Australia, the south-west of Western Australia, as well as parts of South Australia and much of Tasmania. However, rainfall was extremely low to below average for isolated parts of eastern Queensland, the south-east of Western Australia, and parts of the Northern Territory.
The main climate influences for August were a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM). A negative IOD typically results in enhanced rainfall in a broad band extending from the north-west to the south-east of Australia, and a positive SAM is associated with increased rainfall across parts of eastern Australia but less rainfall for parts of southern Australia.
August 2022 rainfall was above average to extremely high across cropping regions of New South Wales and Western Australia, western, northern and south-eastern parts of Queensland, eastern and central Victoria, and central parts of South Australia. August rainfall was generally average for all remaining cropping regions
Extremely high rainfall across eastern Australia in August followed a wet start to the winter cropping season, with soil moisture levels above average across most cropping regions. Early sown crops not impacted by waterlogging are in excellent condition, especially across southern New South Wales and Victoria. However, the wet conditions have limited field access, with growers in some cases turning to aerial application of fungicides and urea. For parts of central and northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, the wet conditions have exacerbated waterlogging of winter crops, delaying crop development. The above average to extremely high rainfall received in Western Australia has continued to support winter crops, which have had a favourable start to the season, with above average crop biomass establishing strong yield potentials.
Rainfall percentiles for August 2022
Upper layer soil moisture in August 2022 was extremely high for this time of year across much of New South Wales and Victoria, large areas of central and western Queensland, the north-west and south-west of Western Australia, the north-east and south of South Australia, isolated parts of the Northern Territory and Tasmania reflecting high monthly rainfall in these areas. Extremely low upper layer soil moisture was evident across scattered areas of eastern Queensland, the Northern Territory and central Western Australia. Modelled upper layer soil moisture was generally average to above average across the remainder of the country.
At this time of year, upper layer soil moisture is less critical for well-established winter crops. However, upper layer soil moisture will be critical for supporting the germination and establishment of summer crops in the coming months. Too much upper layer soil moisture at this time can also impede access paddocks to undertake the spraying of fungicide to counter disease pressure associated with the wet conditions and fertilizer top-dressing activities.
Upper layer soil moisture was average to above average for this time of year across cropping regions in Queensland and southern Western Australia. Upper layer soil moisture was well above average to extremely high for much of New South Wales, Victoria South Australia and central and northern Western Australia. Following extremely high upper layer soil moisture in previous months, the below average upper layer soil moisture conditions in August across Queensland would have allowed for improved field access.
Modelled upper layer soil moisture for August 2022
Lower layer soil moisture for August 2022 was well above average to extremely high for this time of year across eastern and central New South Wales, large areas of eastern, central and northern Queensland, parts of northern and much of south-western Western Australia, and scattered areas of eastern Victoria and the north of the Northern Territory and South Australia. Lower layer soil moisture was well below average to below average in isolated parts of central South Australia, the north and south-east of Western Australia and large areas of the Northern Territory. Modelled lower layer soil moisture was generally average across the remainder of the country.
Lower layer soil moisture will be important for winter crops as they enter flowering and grain filling over the coming months and help support what is expected to be a very large spring and summer crop planting season and peak pasture growth period.
In cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture was well above average to extremely high across central New South Wales, much of Queensland and central and northern Western Australia. Lower layer soil moisture was below average for this time of year in isolated areas of southern New South Wales and central South Australia. Lower layer soil moisture was generally average across remaining areas of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, as well as southern areas of Western Australia.
Well above average to extremely high lower layer soil moisture levels across central New South Wales and much of Queensland does present a downside risk to yields. These areas are subject to increased chances of exceeding median rainfall over the next three months, increasing the potential of ongoing saturated soils and waterlogging and reducing potential yields.
Average or better soil moisture levels in most cropping regions and pastoral districts, and the favourable rainfall outlook for spring, is likely to provide sufficient plant available water availability to achieve current winter and summer crop production forecasts and drive strong pasture growth to support current livestock production and herd rebuilding projections for 2022–23.
Modelled lower layer soil moisture for August 2022
Over the 8-days to 8 September 2022, troughs and low-pressure systems are forecast to draw down moist, tropical air, resulting in showers across central, western and eastern Australia. A cold front is expected to bring isolated rainfall to parts of southern Australia. High-pressure systems will provide clear, dry conditions across remaining parts of the country.
Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast across most of New South Wales, southern and central Queensland, central and south-western Victoria, much of South Australia, and Tasmania, as well as southern and central parts of Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of north-eastern New South Wales.
In Australian cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are expected across New South Wales, Queensland, eastern Victoria, central and western regions of South Australia, as well as Western Australia. Little to no rainfall is forecast for cropping regions in western Victoria and the east of South Australia during the next 8-days.
The moderate rainfall forecast across cropping regions in northern New South Wales and southern and central Queensland will increase waterlogging risks across low-lying areas. These wet conditions will prolong the inability to access fields for disease management and top dressing. Limited access to aerial applications of pesticides and urea will be a major limiting factor in some growing regions. This may result in increased disease pressure and delays in the timely application of urea, presenting a potential downside risk to the current well above yield expectations in some growing regions.
Waterlogging and frost events remain the biggest potential downside risk to yields over the coming weeks. For the most part, above average soil moisture levels will support strong yield potentials, with crops flowering and grain filling as we enter spring. In Central Queensland, harvesting of winter crops and planting of long-season summer crops will get underway in the coming weeks. Central Queensland growers will be hoping for clear, dry conditions to facilitate timely planting and harvesting operations.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 1 September to 8 September 2022
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