Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 20 March 2025

In the week ending 19 March 2025, monsoon lows brought rainfall to the north of the country while low-pressure systems brought rainfall to the southeast and southwest. High-pressure systems kept much of the remainder of Australia largely dry.

• Parts of the northern tropics, including the far north of the Northern Territory and northern Queensland, recorded rainfall totals of between 5-200 millimetres, with greater rainfall totals in isolated areas of north-eastern Queensland.
• Rainfall totals of between 5-100 millimetres were recorded across much of the north and west of Western Australia, as well as south-eastern Victoria and Tasmania.
• Little to no rainfall was observed in remaining central and southern areas, including South Australia, New South Wales, eastern Western Australia, north-western Victoria, and southern regions of Queensland and the Northern Territory.
  Rainfall totals were generally low across eastern cropping regions, but higher in the west.
• Western Australia saw between 10-100 millimetres in central and southern areas, with the north-western margins of the cropping region seeing between 0-10 millimetres.
  • These falls are likely to provide a timely boost to soil moisture levels ahead of the planting of winter crops during April.
• Little to no rainfall was also recorded across much of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia cropping regions.
• In summer cropping regions, rainfall totals were generally low, with much of Queensland and northern New South Wales seeing between 0-5 millimetres of rainfall. This is expected to see a decline in stored soil moisture but has likely allowed the uninterrupted harvesting of crops.

Rainfall for the week ending 19 March 2025

Over the 8 days to 27 March 2025, tropical lows and low-pressure troughs are expected to bring significant rainfall totals to much of the north and east of the country.

• Falls of between 25-200 millimetres are likely for the northern Australia, including much of northern and western Queensland, the Northern Territory, and northern Western Australia. Rainfall totals of up to 300 millimetres are forecast for isolated regions of the far north.
• In New South Wales, Victoria, northern and eastern South Australia and Tasmania rainfall totals of 10-50 millimetres are expected, while south-eastern Queensland is forecast to receive 5 - 50 millimetres.
• High-pressure systems are expected to keep south-western regions largely dry, including southern Western Australia and the southwest of South Australia, where rainfall totals of 1- 15 millimetres are forecast.

Rainfall totals across cropping regions over the coming week are forecast to be highly variable.

• Rainfall totals of between 10-50 millimetres are forecast for cropping regions in New South Wales and Victoria.
  • These falls are likely to provide a timely boost to soil moisture levels ahead of the planting of winter crops during April.
• In South Australia and Queensland, between 5-25 millimetres of rainfall is expected.
• In contrast, cropping regions in Western Australia are forecast to receive little to no rainfall over the period.
• In summer cropping regions across northern New South Wales and Queensland, rainfall totals are expected to be between 5-25 millimetres. If realised, these lower rainfall totals are likely to see a largely uninterrupted harvest but may contribute to further drawdown of soil moisture in some regions.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 20 March to 27 March 2025

Crop production is affected by long-term trends in average rainfall and temperature, interannual climate variability, shocks during specific growth stages, and extreme weather events. Some crops are more tolerant than others to certain types of stresses, and at each growth stage, different types of stresses affect crop species in different ways.

Precipitation anomalies and outlooks presented below indicate the current and expected future production conditions for major grain and oilseed producing countries (responsible for over 80% of global crop production). This is an important input to assessing the global grain supply outlook.

Rainfall in February 2025 was variable across the world’s major grain- and oilseed-producing regions:

• In the southern hemisphere, precipitation was below average across much of Brazil, Argentina, and parts of Australia. Above average precipitation occurred in parts of southeast Asia.
• In the northern hemisphere, precipitation was below average in central areas and the southwest of the United States, eastern India and China, western regions of the Russian Federation and Ukraine, and across much of Europe. Precipitation was above average in the northwest and east of the United States and parts of western Kazakhstan.  

Global precipitation percentiles, February 2025

As of 28 February 2025, global production conditions were generally favourable for rice and maize, but variable for wheat and soybeans:

• Wheat – Conditions are mixed in major northern hemisphere growing regions, with dryness impacting crop development in the Russian Federation, Ukraine and across parts of Europe.
• Maize – Conditions are generally favourable in Argentina and Brazil, but are poor in parts of South Africa.
• Rice – Conditions are generally favourable, however, adverse climate conditions have negatively impacted rice crops in the Philippines.
• Soybeans – Dry climate conditions across parts of Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa are likely to adversely affect crop yields in these areas.

Crop conditions, AMIS countries, 28 February 2025

The global climate outlook for April 2025 to June 2025 indicates that mixed rainfall conditions are expected for the world’s major grain-producing and oilseed-producing regions. Outlooks and potential production impacts for the major grain and oilseed producing countries are presented in the following table.

Rainfall outlook and potential impact on the future state of production conditions, April-June 2025