Our role and work plan process
ABARES work centres around its remit to provide robust and objective data, research, analysis, and advice that informs government policy and private decisions affecting Australia’s agriculture, fisheries and forestry, and water resources.
Before setting our research priorities for the year ahead, we consult with stakeholders within and beyond the department to identify current and emerging issues over the next three-to-five years. We use this process to shape and focus our near-term research and other activities, including the development of new research and analytical capacity where required. This also helps identify opportunities for collaboration with our stakeholders and other research organisations.
This work plan sets out the key activities across each of the five key focus areas to be completed in 2024-25. We produce a variety of outputs from briefing notes and insights papers to research reports, working papers and interactive data dashboards.
An important part of ABARES mission is communicating our research to policymakers, industry and researchers. The centrepiece of ABARES engagement is the ABARES National Outlook conference. The conference brings together Australian and international speakers across industry and government. It provides not only the chance to inform and influence the agricultural policy agenda but provides an opportunity for the department to build and maintain networks with stakeholders.
ABARES is also uplifting its underpinning information communication technology (ICT), data and statistical capabilities. This will improve security, stability, useability, quality of outputs and reduce manual processing and duplication. By modernising our ICT systems, we ensure excellence to deliver professionally independent, world-class research, analysis and advice for government and private sector decision-makers on significant issues affecting Australia's agriculture, fisheries and forestry industries.
Priorities for the year ahead
Australian Commodity Statistics
The Agriculture Commodity Statistics publication provides a compendium of macroeconomic, farm sector and commodity indicators to support analysis of the sector by policymakers, industry and researchers. As ABARES modernises its IT infrastructure, we will also explore making the information more accessible to a broader audience.
Farm survey collection
Undertake ongoing surveys covering the broadacre, dairy, horticulture and some irrigation sectors in the Murray-Darling Basin to collect farm physical and financial information. New work includes developing an agreement with Dairy Australia to combine our respective surveys and share the data between the two agencies. ABARES farm survey data is a key resource for DAFF in measuring and understanding industry performance, the impacts of major events and for evaluating policy responses.
Farm performance reporting and analysis
Publish robust data and research on farm performance, including farm business income, return on capital, farm debt, productivity, the farmland price index and other key indicators, plus analysis of ongoing issues for DAFF such as farmer demographics, market events and structural trends in agricultural industries.
Land use and ownership data for national assessments, modelling and accounts
Continue the ongoing process to produce updated national land use maps and datasets in partnership with the Australian Collaborative Land Use and Management Program. These describe the use of land for conservation and natural environments, production from dryland or irrigated agriculture and plantations, intensive uses (including urban) and water features. This assists with assessment of agricultural productivity and sustainability, biodiversity conservation, biosecurity, land use planning, natural disaster management and natural resource condition monitoring and investment to be addressed. The datasets are also key inputs to modelling land use trade-offs and greenhouse gas emissions and as inputs to environmental-economic accounting.
Improving Agricultural Statistics
ABARES will continue working with the ABS and other stakeholders to improve the agricultural statistical system, including the co-ordination and production of agricultural statistics. Major subprojects include the Agricultural statistics system strategic framework; gross value of production (GVP) agricultural statistics; and land use and agricultural water use foundational dataset user needs analysis
Forestry data
Ongoing updates of the National Forest Inventory (NFI) as the authoritative national repository on Australia’s forest data. The NFI supports forest related policy development, decision making, monitoring and reporting. Also includes publication of forest economics data of the forest sector including the Australian Plantation Statistics, Australian Forest and Wood Products Statistics, gross value of production estimates, and forecasts of production and exports for major forestry commodities. This information is used by policy makers and industry representatives to assess the current state of industry and to inform decisions on trends and drivers of change.
Fisheries and aquaculture statistics
Provide data on the gross value of production (GVP) of Australian fisheries as well as trade, employment and recreational fishing information and forecasts of production and exports for major fisheries commodities.
Production of quarterly Agricultural Commodities and Crop Reports
Production of ABARES quarterly publications Agricultural Commodities and the Australian Crop Report. These reports provide forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports, as well as forecasts for the area, yield and production of Australia’s major winter and summer broadacre crops. The reports outline how changes to the outlook affect Australian producers and the value of their produce, as well as risks and opportunities. Also includes annual fishery and forestry outlooks. These reports inform policy development and industry decision making.
Farm Performance and Productivity Analysis
Providing economic insights on factors affecting farm performance and productivity to inform policy and industry. Includes partnerships with OECD, academics at ANU, Monash, Technical University of Munich, and various other bodies. Analysis will utilise improved input data and enhanced livestock modelling. Projects include dairy sector productivity and climate impacts on farmland price.
Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators
The project is developing a set of national indicators for measuring and forecasting the extent and severity of drought impacts in the Australian agricultural sector. The project will combine climate data with agricultural models to generate ‘outcome-based’ drought indicators translating climate data into specific agricultural impacts (such as crop yields, pasture growth and farm business outcomes). In collaboration with CSIRO and others, version one of the tool will be published.
Weekly Climate and Agricultural Outlook
Provides an up-to-date source of forecasts and information on climatic conditions and their potential impact on domestic and global agricultural production, water availability and commodity price movements. Over 2024-25, it will increasingly incorporate insights from the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators program. The work underpinning this product will also inform the forecasts in the Agricultural Commodities and Crop Reports.
Drivers of change in the dairy industry
This work will examine drivers of change in dairy farming and trends in milk production, dairy product manufacturing and consumption. The paper will consider changes currently occurring in the industry and the future of dairy farming and processing in Australia.
Grain markets
This project explores drivers of different grain prices, drawing on trade and global production data, the analysis compares relative exportable supply between countries and fluctuations in seasonal conditions. The project also analyses trends in grain farm productivity and profitability in Australia, with an eye to international competitiveness to help industry and policy makers understand drivers and competitive pressures in global grain markets.
A changing landscape: the cost of farming in Australia
Input costs for Australian agricultural businesses have increased following global supply disruptions. In response, agricultural producers are adapting to the changing costs of farming. This project uses multiple data sources to analyse trends in the cost of farm production by industry both in Australia and internationally. It considers implications for government policy including risk management strategies and structural adjustment.
Identifying economic benefits of non-tariff measures (NTM) removal/rationalization
The removal of trade barriers improves economic outcomes for the sector and boosts Australia’s economy. This work fills a gap in NTMs analysis by proposing an approach to incorporate NTM estimates into a global trade model. Previous ABARES work estimated NTMs’ static effect on export quantities. This new work will advise on the market impact of NTMs, taking into account trade diversion and equilibrium effects, to understand the whole of economy value of removing NTMs.
Foreign direct investment in Australian agriculture
This work will provide context around the level of direct foreign investment in Australian agriculture and the benefits it provides to the sector. It will also look at areas of community concern around foreign investment and the existing mechanisms for addressing these concerns.
Community indicators of vulnerability/bottom-up adaptive capacity to understand and measure drivers of change in agriculturally dependent communities
ABARES has calculated indicators of community vulnerability for over a decade to help with policy and program design. This project will review contemporary approaches to these indicators and explore the many different data sources available, both within ABARES and externally, in order to improve the currently used approach.
Wood processing sector analysis
Reviewing and reporting how the wood processing sector is structured. The main information source is the 5-yearly processing sector survey undertaken by ABARES, but it is supplemented with additional data and analysis where required. This work will provide the latest information on the number of sawmills, production levels, revenue and key challenges for the sector. This work will feed into the wood volume analysis.
Plantation productivity analysis
This study will examine whether Australia’s plantation estate has the potential to increase productivity and to what extend within its existing footprint to increase future supply of timber. This work will feed into the wood volume analysis.
Relative risks of domestic and international markets for forestry products
This will assess the future risks and volatility expected across international markets for forest and wood products. This work will provide guidance on how Australia should best position investment in domestic supply or draw on international markets for forest and wood products in the future. This work will feed into the wood volume analysis.
Native forest products markets
Following a decline in Australia’s native forest harvesting, this project will consider the degree of substitution to alternative products, or to imported products that has occurred. This work will feed into the wood volume analysis.
Wood volume analysis
A holistic wood volume analysis is intended to give confidence that Australia has access to a range of supply sources to meet domestic demand for forest and wood products. Understanding the portfolio of supply options and the drivers of domestic demand is expected to give decision makers and investors an ability to plan and insulate against strong short term and longer-term price volatility, or to at least understand the risk factors and identify when large price volatility might be expected and for how long.
Estimating the impacts of climate change on the water market in the southern Murray Darlin Basin
This project was developed in consultation with the MDBA and involves estimating how climate change will affect the water market, irrigation sector and (where possible) environment water holders. The analysis will consider a range of future climate scenarios using data provided by the MDBA and CSIRO as part of the Murray Darling Basin Sustainable Yields project. ABARES will publish a short report covering the results of the analysis, which will be used to inform the Basin Plan Review.
Helping to develop a more active environmental water trade strategy
This will expand upon a recent ABARES report that examined the broad pros and cons of the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder (CEWH) more actively trade in the allocation market (both buying and selling) to help maximise the environmental benefits from its water portfolio. ABARES will work with the CEWH to help develop their environmental water trading strategy. The aim would be to develop a robust and pragmatic strategy that accounts for the CEWH’s specific environmental watering objectives and constraints, including the complexities of the water market.
Assessing northern Murray-Darling Basin water management options
ABARES’ existing modelling capacity is limited to the southern Murray-Darling Basin. This project will extend our modelling capability to the northern Basin to be able to provide advice on the impacts of different water management options such as water recovery for the Basin Plan or the relaxation of river operating constraints.
Linking hydrology and economic models to improve water management decisions
Models currently used to inform water policy tend to focus on either hydrological or economic systems with limited consideration of the linkages between these systems. This work will establish links between existing simplified hydrological and economic models in the southern Murray-Darling Basin to provide better information for water policy decision-making. This project is a collaboration between ABARES and University of Melbourne.
ABARES Land Use Model – land based sequestration policies
This work will analyse the consequences of different land sector policies for Australian agriculture and regions. The work will explore estimating the impacts by region over time on: land use; sequestration; commodity production and prices; landholder costs and revenues; and consumer surplus.
Informing trade policy choices in the face of increasing climate volatility
The impacts of climate change of global agricultural markets are uncertain. Some international markets may be tempted to turn inward and adopt protectionist policies to protect against local and international weather shocks which could occur with uncertain timing and frequency. This project aims to present an evidence-base, incorporating uncertainty in a stochastic framework, to investigate whether open markets deliver better outcomes to consumers in the presence of greater climate volatility. The outcomes of this work will provide an evidence base to inform Australia’s trade advocacy.
Quantifying the impact a changing climate is having on Australian and global agricultural volatility
Climate change is impacting agriculture and food production across the world, presenting agricultural production risks and enhanced volatility in agricultural commodity markets. This project aims to gain a better understanding of agricultural industry sector volatility and assess volatility of price and market arising from changing climate volatility.
Reporting of sustainable forest management
Provide updates to 24 of the 42 indicators in Australia’s State of the Forests Report as well as publish the 5-yearly synthesis.
National and international forestry engagement
Engagement in national committees and international forums relevant to forestry to connect with and understand our stakeholders, partners and communities. Key examples include the National Forest Inventory Steering Committee, Montreal Process Implementation Group for Australia, Forestry and Forest Products Committee, United Nations Forum on Forests and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
Scientific and economic input to inform domestic fisheries management
Participate in all AFMA Resource Assessment Group meetings (and other similar fora) as either a scientific member, invited participant or observer. In this role we represent ABARES and the Department and aim to contribute to evidence based scientific advice to inform fishery management.
Scientific input to Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (RFMOs)
Lead the science elements for Australia in five RFMOs. This includes scientific analyses, briefing, advice and development of Australian positions, including in relation to stock status, harvest strategies, reference points, allocation negotiations, exploratory fisheries proposals and management approaches; fulfilling the Australian Government's obligations with respect to science and data reporting; and contributing to Australia's broader geo-strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region.
Fishery Status Reports
Produce the annual Fishery Status Reports (FSR). The FSR provides an independent assessment of the biological status of fish stocks and the economic performance of fisheries managed solely or jointly by the Australian Government. The undertaking of this role by ABARES is formalised through overarching policy and provides transparency on the performance of Commonwealth fisheries management.
Status of Australian Fish Stocks reports – 2024
ABARES represents the Commonwealth in the production of this national initiative. ABARES contributes data, information and ultimately status determination for all fish stocks taken by Commonwealth fisheries which are covered by this product.
Review of Commonwealth fisheries policies and guidelines
ABARES will providing scientific and economic advice to assist with the Australian Government 5 yearly review of the Commonwealth Harvest Strategy Policy and the Commonwealth Policy on Fisheries Bycatch.
Using non-survey methods to monitor the economic performance of Commonwealth fisheries
This report will explore opportunities to use existing fisheries data sets (e.g. administrative data sets held by regulators and public datasets of costs such as fuel prices) to estimate the economic performance of Commonwealth fisheries. This is in lieu of undertaking primary data collection via surveys that are getting increasingly expensive and difficult to undertake. This work also includes developing an economic conditions index for the Bass Strait Central Zone Scallop fishery and the Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery.
Models and methods to support biosecurity inspection and surveillance design
Development of tools and methods to support (i) Compliance Based Inspection Schemes, within consignment sampling, and surveillance design - various project applications and collaboration with ANU through an ARC linkage grant; (ii) eradication decision-making for plant and animal pests and diseases.
Cost-benefit analysis to support biosecurity policy and operational decisions
Developing and applying multidisciplinary methods to quantify economic impacts and to incorporate results into resource allocation decisions. Detailed and rigorous benefit-cost analyses are a major focus, including contributions to emergency response decisions that arise during the year.
Supporting the development and implementation of established pest and weed policy
Research and analysis that helps the department develop and implement national policy relevant to established vertebrate pests and weeds. Specific projects include (i) the National Pests and Weeds Distribution project to understand and identify the technical, policy and institutional arrangements required to collate, maintain and disseminate up-to-date information on the distribution of nationally significant established pest and weed species; (ii) the National landholder pests and weed management survey to be used to understand how the regional significance of pests and weeds to agriculture is changing over time; (iii) contribution to the development and implementation of the National Established Weed Priorities (NEWP) Framework, which among other things will assess whether new weeds should be added to the Weeds of National Significance list.
Supporting the development and implementation of environmental pest policy
Research and analysis that helps the department develop and implement national policy relevant to exotic environmental pests, weeds and diseases.
Improving marine biosecurity
This area is integral to the development and implementation of policy and programs for marine pest biosecurity in Australia. It also provides critical information and scientific advice for responses to marine pest incursions.
Supporting the development and implementation of biosecurity policy and programs by understanding the role of people, society and institutions
Supporting the effectiveness of domestic general surveillance programs involving ongoing research to develop evidence-based monitoring and evaluation tools.