Australian Crop Report March 2024

Summer rainfall boosts summer crop prospects

Australian summer crop production is forecast to fall by 17% to 4.3 million tonnes in 2023–24. Despite being a significant fall from last year’s highs, this production forecast remains 22% above the 10-year average to 2022–23 of 3.5 million tonnes. Summer crop prospects are excellent following better than expected seasonal conditions during late spring and summer in Queensland and northern New South Wales. Much of eastern Australia recorded significant rainfall totals with the influence of ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily and ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln. National summer crop production has been revised up by 14% compared to the December 2023 Australian Crop Report.

Yield prospects and production are expected to be well above average but less favourable than the previous two seasons. This is mainly because drier conditions during the early planting window of September and October across major dryland summer cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales limited planting opportunities for early sown summer crops. Area planted to summer crops is estimated to fall by 14% to 1.3 million hectares in 2023–24. Despite this fall, average to above average summer rainfall boosted soil moisture levels for crop establishment and growth and provided favourable planting conditions for later-sown summer crops.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall outlook for March suggests there is at least a 75% chance of rainfall totals up to 25 millimetres across cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland. Given the average to above average rainfall recorded across Queensland and northern New South Wales during summer, if realised, these forecast rainfall totals for March will provide some useful follow-up falls for dryland summer crops.

Fall Armyworm is reported to be causing localised damage in sorghum and corn (maize) crops in parts of Queensland and northern New South Wales. Later sown crops planted from December onwards are most heavily impacted. Higher yields in areas unaffected is likely to offset any crop losses caused by Fall Armyworm.

Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 24% to 2.0 million tonnes in 2023–24. This represents a 38% upwards revision from the December 2023 Australian Crop Report and is now 26% above the 10-year average to 2022–23. Better than expected summer rainfall has led to higher plantings of later-sown sorghum crops, increased yield potential and boosted overall sorghum production.

Production of cotton lint in 2023–24 is forecast to fall by 18% to 1.0 million tonnes but remain 32% above the 10-year average. Area planted to cotton is expected to fall by 17% to 477 thousand hectares in 2023–24. This reflects a fall in both dryland cotton plantings due to below average rainfall totals during the planting window, and irrigated cotton plantings due to decreased water availability in key cropping regions across southeast Queensland. Despite this decline in planted area, cotton production is likely to remain above the 10-year average, with the yields of irrigated cotton in New South Wales likely to be supported by high levels of water storages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin following three consecutive years of above average rainfall. This cotton production forecast is an upward revision from the December Report as good rainfall in November prompted late planting of dryland cotton across New South Wales. Aggregate cotton yield is slightly lower than previously forecast, as a higher proportion of this year’s crop is planted to dryland cotton.

Production of rice is forecast to rise slightly in 2023–24, up 9% to 555 thousand tonnes. Warmer temperatures supplanted the cool start to sowing, however area planted has been revised down from December to just above the 2022–23 crop (which was impacted by wet conditions).

Figure 1 Australian summer crop production, 2023–24

Above average national winter crop production

Australian winter crop production is estimated to fall by 32% to 46.7 million tonnes in 2023–24. Despite falling from record highs achieved in 2022–23, this is slightly above the 10-year average to 2022–23 of 46.5 million tonnes. Seasonal conditions across Australian winter cropping regions were mixed throughout the 2023–24 winter cropping season. Favourable timing of rainfall events boosted production across major cropping regions in southern New South Wales, Victoria and parts of South Australia. By contrast, persistent dryness reduced yield potential in Queensland, northern New South Wales and Western Australia.

Harvesting of winter crops this season is now complete. The national winter crop harvest progressed earlier and at a much faster pace than in recent years. The earlier start to harvest was driven by hot and dry finishing conditions in Queensland, northern New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia. Widespread rainfall events in November and early summer resulted in some harvest delays across major cropping regions in central and southern New South Wales, Victoria and parts of South Australia.

The quality profile of the national wheat crop was mixed with a higher proportion of wheat making high protein grades compared to the three previous La Niña years, particularly in Western Australia and South Australia. However, wheat in Victoria and parts of New South Wales was heavily weighted to the lower protein Australian Standard White grade, with some quality downgrades due to wet harvest conditions.

National winter crop production has been revised up slightly compared to the December 2023 Australian Crop Report. This reflects improved production in Victoria and New South Wales which is estimated to more than offset reduced production in Western Australia.

• Wheat production is forecast to fall by 36% to 26 million tonnes, 2% below the 10-year average. This is an upwards revision from the December forecast.
• Barley production is forecast to fall by 24% to 10.8 million tonnes, 4% below the 10-year average. This is consistent with the December forecast.
• Canola production is forecast to fall by 31% to 5.7 million tonnes but remain well above the 10- year average on account of area planted estimated to be the second highest on record. This is an upwards revision from the December forecast.

Figure 2 Australian winter crop production, 2023–24

Total summer crop production in Queensland is forecast to fall by 27% to 1.9 million tonnes in 2023– 24 from record production in 2022–23. Despite this fall, it is still 16% above the 10-year average to 2022–23 and represents a 22% upwards revision from the December 2023 Australian Crop Report. A high proportion of the 2023–24 crop was sown toward the end of the summer crop planting window, reflecting lower levels of soil moisture early in the planting window, but supported by a boost in later planting coinciding with the arrival of late spring – early summer rainfall. Summer crop yields are forecast to fall by 7% compared to 2022–23, however remaining above 5-year and 10- year averages to 2022–23.

According to the latest three-month climate outlook (issued by Bureau of Meteorology on 22 February 2024), rainfall is more likely to be below median for much of northern Australia which will impact Queensland cropping regions. Despite this less than favourable rainfall outlook, summer crop production in Queensland is expected to be supported by elevated levels of sub-soil moisture due to the wetter than anticipated conditions earlier in the season. Additionally, timely rainfall has had a positive impact on subsoil moisture in central Queensland, resulting in above average yields for some regions. The recent detection of Fall Armyworm at elevated levels represents a potential downside production risk across Queensland, with it mostly impacting sorghum and corn (maize) crops. However, higher yields in regions not exposed are likely to offset any reduction to yields in regions affected by Fall Armyworm.

Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 23% in 2023–24 to 1.4 million tonnes, down from record production levels in 2022–23. The lack of rainfall leading up to planting limited summer area for 2023–24 compared to 2022–23 as well as some parts of the inner and southern Downs not getting fully planted. Area planted to sorghum is forecast to fall by around 15% to 415 thousand hectares. Since December, Queensland has seen wetter conditions than anticipated which has provided a boost in the area planted and a positive impact on sorghum yields in both southern and central Queensland. Much of southern Queensland had a better-than-expected finish to the season due to above average summer rainfall. Although less favourable growing conditions have been experienced in the western most parts of southern Queensland limiting the area planted to sorghum.

Cotton lint production is forecast to fall by 45% to 283 thousand tonnes in 2023–24, driven by reduced plantings of both dryland and irrigated cotton. Dry conditions in early spring limited dryland plantings but facilitated planting of irrigated crops with uninterrupted field access. Irrigated planting is slightly lower than the December forecast and likely associated with a fall in irrigation water availability, with water levels in key cropping regions across southeast Queensland being significantly lower than in the 2022–23 planting season. Above average rainfall in November saw limited increases in dryland cotton planting. Despite the combined effects of unfavourable seasonal conditions and falling water levels, state cotton production is expected to be higher than the 10-year average.

Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2022–23.
Source: ABARES

Total winter crop production in Queensland is estimated to fall by 48% to 1.7 million tonnes in 2023–24, reflecting the onset of drier conditions across most cropping regions. This is broadly in line with expectations from the December 2023 Australian Crop Report and sits 14% below the 10-year average to 2022–23. The lack of rainfall during the winter growing season impeded crop development, with a drawdown in soil moisture reserves throughout the winter cropping season insufficient to maintain average production outcomes.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2022–23.
Source: ABARES

Total summer crop production in New South Wales is forecast to fall by 9% to 2.2 million tonnes in 2023–24. Despite the year-on-year fall in production, this is 24% above the 10-year average to 2022– 23 and represents a 7% upwards revision from the December 2023 Australian Crop Report. Area planted to summer crops is estimated to have fallen by 5% to 628 thousand hectares resulting from dry conditions leading up to the start of the summer cropping season. Summer crop yields are forecast to be 4% below 2022–23 levels. The fall in area planted and lower yields are expected to reduce overall production volumes of summer crops relative to last year.

The latest 3-month climate outlook (issued by Bureau of Meteorology on 22 February 2024) indicated a relatively neutral rainfall outlook for New South Wales for the remainder of the summer cropping season. This, coupled with the existing above average levels of sub-soil moisture, is expected to allow for above average levels of crop production in 2023–24. It should be noted that there this a potential downside risk to this positive production forecast due to a recent outbreak of Fall Armyworm in sorghum. However, reports suggest minimal impact on New South Wales sorghum as earlier planted crops have been harvested with well above average yields and later planted crops have been sprayed with pesticides to minimise the damage.

Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 25% to 611 thousand tonnes in 2023–24. Many growers that missed the opportunity to plant a winter crop in 2023–24, due to prolonged dryness, are likely to have taken advantage of average levels of soil moisture during the late spring of 2023 and planted fields that were left fallow over winter. Many growers utilised the improved planting opportunities associated with November to January rainfall towards the end of the planting window. However, a lack of rainfall leading up to the start of the planting window limited area expansion in 2023–24. High levels of soil moisture during the season have supported higher yields for late plantings with a forecast yield of 3.7 tonnes per hectare, falling below the 2022–23 yield by 12% but remaining 18% above the 10-year average.

Cotton lint production is forecast to fall by 2% to 719 thousand tonnes in 2023–24. Timely planting of irrigated cotton and high water storage levels in the southern Murray Darling Basin have supported a marginal increase in irrigated cotton production. Below average rainfall and soil moisture in September and October led to disruptions in dryland cotton planting. However, above average rainfall in November has prompted late planting across the state, leading to higher dryland production than previously anticipated. Aggregate cotton yield is down slightly, due to the higher portion of dryland cotton planted.

Rice production is forecast to increase by 9% to 550 thousand tonnes in 2023–24, driven by slight increases in planted area and yields. Recent improved weather conditions have supported crop development, compared to the flood-related challenges which impacted the 2022–23 crop.

Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2022–23.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in New South Wales is estimated to reach 11 million tonnes in 2023–24. This estimate is 5% below the 10-year average to 2022–23 and 29% below the near-record production of last year. Area planted to winter crops in New South Wales is estimated to be 5.5 million hectares in 2023–24, similar to the 10-year average to 2022–23 but falling by 6% compared to last year. Much of northern New South Wales experienced persistent unfavourable climatic conditions throughout the winter cropping season, resulting in below average production. This was outweighed by the overall improvement in crop yields in the central to southern parts of the state, attributed to the average to above average October and November rainfall. As a result, 2023–24 winter crop production estimates have seen an upwards revision from that forecast in the December 2023 Australian Crop Report.
 

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2022–23.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Victoria is estimated to reach 10.4 million tonnes in 2023–24, slightly below the record 11 million tonnes set in 2022–23. Despite the decline year-on-year, this is an upward revision from the December 2023 Australian Crop Report and sits 38% above the 10-year average to 2022–23. This forecast incorporates higher-than-expected yields, reflecting favourable conditions during key growing periods across most cropping regions. Despite below average rainfall during September, timely and adequate rainfall in October and November supported grain fill in cereal crops across the state.

A favourable start to the season enabled timely planting for winter crops, with area planted estimated to be 3.6 million hectares, 6% above the 10-year average to 2022–23. Winter crop yields are estimated to sit just below the record levels of 2022–23, given high stored soil moisture profiles, and crop establishment and growth supported by consistent winter rainfall. Below average rainfall across the Mallee and Wimmera regions during September was expected to reduce crop prospects in these areas. However, average to above average rainfall during October and November was adequate to provide upside potential to grain and oilseed yields in those areas.

Harvest activity was prolonged in some central and southern regions of Victoria due to the heavy rainfall totals recorded in late November and early December. This cool and wet finish also impacted the quality profile of wheat harvested in Victoria, with a high proportion making the Australian Standard White grade and downgrades to feed grades also reported. Similar quality downgrades for barley were also detected, affecting the proportion of the crop meeting malting grade specification.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2022–23.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in South Australia is estimated to fall by 31% to 8.7 million tonnes in 2023– 24, reflecting the onset of drier climate conditions across most cropping regions compared to 2022– 23. This is broadly consistent with expectations since the December 2023 Australian Crop Report and now sits 11% above the 10-year average to 2022–23. Despite the onset of drier climatic conditions, growing conditions across the state remained somewhat favourable with high levels of subsoil moisture due to timely summer rainfall events. While yields across South Australia are likely to be above the 10-year average, production conditions have been highly variable across different regions.

The winter crop harvest in South Australia progressed at a much faster pace than recent years with drier conditions during November enabling an early harvest. Due to this early harvest, grain quality was reportedly high especially in early crops with very high protein, particularly through the Eyre and York Peninsula. However, rainfall in late December affected the later sown crops, leading to quality downgrades in the Southeast due to the timing of rainfall right on the cusp of harvest. Frost events during spring caused damage to some crops, however, dry finishing conditions are likely to have had a larger negative effect on yields than any downgrades caused by frost damage.

An earlier finish to the season enabled greater access to subsoil moisture resulting in above-average yields for the major broadacre crops. The continued uptake in the planting of genetically modified canola particularly across the southern areas has had a positive impact on yields across the state. The early sowing of the crop and the ability to access deep soil moisture has been favourable for canola across the state.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2022–23.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Western Australia is estimated to have reached 14.7 million tonnes in 2023–24, down 44% from the 2022–23 record. This represents a 5% downwards revision from the December 2023 Australian Crop Report and is now 15% below the 10-year average to 2022–23. Persistent dry spring conditions resulted in lower yields than initially forecast in most regions. The below average harvest reflects the drier start to the winter cropping season, below average soil moisture levels throughout much of the season and unfavourably dry seasonal conditions, particularly in the lower-rainfall northern cropping regions of Western Australia.

Rainfall events and harvest bans to reduce the risk of bushfires led to some harvest disruptions. Overall, the winter crop harvest in Western Australia progressed at a faster pace and finished much earlier than recent years, mostly reflecting hot and dry finishing conditions.

Despite the fall in crop yields, grain quality was better than expected, with a higher proportion of wheat making premium high protein grades and lower screenings reported compared to the two previous record seasons. However, the share of barley making malt grades was lower than in recent years, reflecting dry finishing conditions and higher screenings.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2022–23.
Source: ABARES