Australian Crop Report December 2024

Above average winter crop production forecast for 2024–25

Australian winter crop production is forecast to increase by 16% to 55.1 million tonnes in 2024–25 (Figure 1). This is 17% above the 10-year average of 47.1 million tonnes to 2023–24, and if realised, will be the fifth highest result on record. National winter crop production is forecast to increase despite significant variation in growing conditions across states during the winter cropping season.

• Winter crop production is forecast to increase strongly in New South Wales and Queensland, with total production expected to reach the second highest and highest result on record, respectively.  A favourable start to the winter cropping season, above average winter rainfall and high soil moisture levels in most cropping regions have contributed to above average yields in both states. Drier conditions in late spring have assisted most growers in Queensland and northern New South Wales with harvesting their crops.
• Crop prospects in Western Australia improved significantly following timely winter rainfall, with total winter crop production now expected to reach the third highest level on record. Despite below average spring rainfall across southern growing regions, many regions received sufficient rainfall during the critical grain fill windows to support above average yields and production.
• In contrast, production is forecast to be lower in South Australia and Victoria. Persistent dry conditions throughout the winter cropping season have led to widespread moisture stress and significantly lower than average winter crop yields in these regions. Large areas of south-eastern Australia also experienced widespread severe frosts during September 2024.

The latest rainfall outlook, issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 28 November 2024, indicates an increased chance of exceeding the December median across most winter cropping regions. December 2024 rainfall totals are likely to be between 25 and 50 millimetres in New South Wales, while much of Victoria and South Australia is forecast to receive between 10 and 25 millimetres over the period, with Western Australia likely to receive between 5 and 25 millimetres. There is an increased likelihood of significant rainfall and storms across the east of Australia in early December. If realised, rainfall across eastern cropping regions will likely interrupt the harvest of remaining winter crops and may cause grain quality downgrades.

National winter crop production remains consistent compared to the September 2024 Australian Crop Report. Higher production in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia is expected to mostly offset reduced production and crop losses in large parts of south-eastern Australia caused by persistent dryness and widespread severe frosts. Despite the variable state-level outlooks, the national production forecast for all major winter crops is expected to be above average in 2024–25.

• Wheat production is forecast to increase by 23% to 31.9 million tonnes in 2024–25, 20% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. Wheat production in New South Wales and Western Australia – the two largest wheat producing states – is forecast to rebound by 75% and 40% respectively in 2024–25, driven by increased production in northern cropping regions of both states.
• Barley production is forecast to increase by 8% to 11.7 million tonnes in 2024–25, 3% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. This forecast reflects an estimated 6% increase in area and above average national barley yields.
• Canola production is forecast to fall by 8% to 5.6 million tonnes in 2024–25, driven by a decrease in total area planted and lower yields – a result of dry conditions in south-eastern Australia where a significant proportion of the national canola crop is grown. Area planted, however, remains above the 10-year average resulting in expected canola production remaining 23% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.
• Lentil production is forecast to fall by 29% to 1.1 million tonnes in 2024–25. This represents a 34% downward revision from the September 2024 Australian Crop Report, mainly because of reduced crop prospects in South Australia and Victoria. However, forecast production remains well above the 10-year average to 2023–24 of 764 thousand tonnes, a result of an estimated record area planted to lentils in 2024–25.
• Chickpea production is forecast to increase by 284% to 1.9 million tonnes in 2024–25. This represents a 42% upward revision from the September 2024 Australian Crop Report and now sits 141% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. This reflects a significant expansion in area and record national yield, given optimal planting and growing conditions in New South Wales and Queensland, and favourable prices. If realised, this will be the second highest chickpea harvest on record.

Area planted to winter crops in 2024–25 is estimated to have increased by 7% to 24.6 million hectares. This is a new national record, driven by a greater area planted to winter crops in New South Wales (up 23%) and Queensland (up 36%). Favourable seasonal conditions at the time of planting led to area increases in both states, with many expanding into regions not normally sown to winter crops such as northwest New South Wales.

Figure 1 Australian winter crop production, 2024–25

Summer crop plantings to remain above average in 2024–25

Summer crop production is forecast to fall by 7% to 4.4 million tonnes in 2024–25 (Figure 2). This represents a 6% downward revision from the September 2024 Australian Crop Report but remains 20% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 of 3.6 million tonnes. Area planted to summer crops in 2024–25 is forecast to remain above average at 1.3 million hectares. This is supported by above average soil moisture levels and rainfall at time of planting, however, area expansion has been limited somewhat by lower water allocations in some areas and a record area planted to winter crops in key summer cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales.

According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (December to February), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 28 November 2024, there is a high probability of above median rainfall across most eastern cropping regions. If realised, above average rainfall in Queensland and northern New South Wales would provide favourable growing conditions for summer crops, and is expected to result in above average summer crop yields.

Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 4% to 2.1 million tonnes in 2024–25, but remain well above the 10-year average to 2023–24 of 1.7 million tonnes. The fall reflects an expected 4% decline in area planted to sorghum due to a reduction in area left fallow following the large winter crop in many sorghum-growing regions. Late spring and early summer rainfall is likely to boost soil moisture levels and support late planting of sorghum. The increased chance of above average summer rainfall and high soil moisture levels are expected to support the production potential of sorghum crops.

Production of cotton lint is forecast to fall by 7% to 1.0 million tonnes in 2024–25, reflecting a marginal fall in both area planted and yields. Area planted to cotton is forecast to fall by 3% to 458 thousand hectares in 2024–25, but remain 15% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. Aggregate yields are also likely to fall slightly from near record levels in 2023–24. However, high water availability and an above-average rainfall outlook across much of eastern Australia is expected to support above average yields, with the production forecast sitting 28% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.

Rice production is forecast to fall by 28% to 449 thousand tonnes in 2024–25. A forecast 24% decline in area planted in New South Wales, motivated by lower global prices and reduced general security water allocations, is expected to drive the decline in production.

Figure 2 Australian summer crop production, 2024–25

Winter crop production in Queensland is forecast to increase by 110% to reach 3.6 million tonnes in 2024–25, and if realised, will be the highest production level on record. This is 76% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 of 2.0 million tonnes and represents an 8% upward revision from the September 2024 Australian Crop Report. The upward revision is attributed to higher yields and higher area planted to chickpeas than previously anticipated.

Growing conditions for winter crops in 2024–25 have been largely favourable across most areas of Queensland. Adequate rainfall and high soil moisture levels at planting saw an optimal start to the cropping season and a year-on-year expansion in area. Favourable rainfall in the growing season, particularly in southern growing regions, boosted yields for all major winter crops. Wheat and barley production is forecast to increase in 2024–25 by 106% and 78% to 2.2 million and 535 thousand tonnes, respectively. These are 73% and 66% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. Chickpea production is forecast to increase by 168% to be 98% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.

The winter crop harvest in Queensland is near completion. Relatively dry finishing conditions provided uninterrupted field access. However, recent rainfall may have resulted in some delays and quality downgrades in unharvested crops.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Summer crop production in Queensland is forecast to fall by 2% to 2.0 million tonnes in 2024–25. This remains 18% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 but represents an 8% downward revision from the September 2024 Australian Crop Report. Lower grain prices and less area available due to the large Queensland winter crop are expected to lead to a decline in the area planted to sorghum, driving the overall decline in summer crop production. However, this decline in area planted to sorghum is expected to be partially offset by a greater area planted to cotton. An increased probability of above median rainfall over the remainder of the growing season is expected to lead to above average crop yields.

Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 5% to 1.4 million tonnes in 2024–25. Area planted to sorghum is forecast to decline by 4% to 398 thousand hectares, reflecting less area available due to the large Queensland winter crop, particularly chickpeas. Sorghum yields are also expected to decline slightly in 2024–25, but production is still expected to be 22% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.

Cotton lint production is forecast to increase by 8% to 318 thousand tonnes in 2024–25, driven by an increase in planted area. Area planted to cotton is expected to rise to 135 thousand hectares, as favourable spring rainfall allowed for timely planting in dryland growing regions while improved water availability is likely to support higher irrigated cotton planting. Yields are expected to fall slightly in 2024-25 but remain above the 10-year average to 2023–24.

Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in New South Wales is forecast to increase to 19.1 million tonnes in 2024–25, increasing by 68% to be the second highest production on record. This is a 13% upward revision from the September 2024 Australian Crop Report and is now 62% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. This improvement in production follows average to above average rainfall in northern New South Wales throughout spring and an upward revision to area planted to chickpeas.

Growing conditions for winter crops in 2024–25 have been mostly favourable within New South Wales. The central west and northern cropping regions have benefitted from above average soil moisture levels and favourable rainfall throughout winter and spring. Southern growing regions experienced a drier start to the season as well as minor impacts from frost events throughout September limiting yield potential. However, timely rainfall throughout October and November have aided frost impacted crops in their recovery, arresting further yield declines and supporting grain fill.

The area planted to winter crops in New South Wales is estimated to have increased by 23% to 6.8 million hectares in 2024–25, the second highest on record. This is 24% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 and represents a 6% upward revision from the September 2024 Australian Crop Report. Favourable seasonal conditions at the time of planting led to increases in area for winter crops, with many expanding into regions not normally sown to these crops, such as northwest New South Wales.

Overall, wheat production in New South Wales is expected to increase by 75% in 2024–25, with the average state yield forecast to be 46% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. Similar production upsides are expected for barley and canola, with mostly favourable conditions pushing average state level yields 34% and 20% above the 10-year average respectively.

Chickpea production is forecast to increase by 567% to 1.1 million tonnes in 2024–25, a new record high. Production has been driven higher by increases in area planted to chickpeas, following the Indian government’s announcement of a tariff free period for Australian chickpea exports, which led to an increase in Australian chickpea export prices and hence incentivised increased plantings. Chickpea production has been revised upwards by 69% since the September 2024 Australian Crop Report and is now 219% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.

The winter crop harvest is now underway across all cropping regions within New South Wales. Favourable conditions in the north as well as clear and warm weather in the south has meant strong receivals across all cropping regions. Initial receival point test results indicate increased levels of screenings, pointing toward evidence of frost damage in some crops, but overall high protein levels for wheat and high malting percentages for barley have been reported.

The Bureau of Meteorology's rainfall outlook for December (issued on 28 November 2024) indicates that rainfall across cropping regions in New South Wales is likely to exceed the median. Excessive rainfall over December may delay harvest activity and reduce the quality of grain harvested.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Summer crop production in New South Wales in 2024–25 is forecast to fall by 11% to 2.2 million tonnes. This remains 22% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 and represents a 5% downward revision from the September 2024 Australian Crop Report. The forecast fall in production reflects an expected decrease in area planted to cotton, rice and sorghum in 2024–25. Total area planted to summer crops in 2024–25 is expected to fall by 5% to 627 thousand hectares.

Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 1% to 700 thousand tonnes in 2024–25, 35% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. Area planted to sorghum is forecast to fall by 3% to 170 thousand hectares in 2024–25 but remains above the 10-year average to 2023–24. Expansion in area planted to sorghum is being limited by large winter crop plantings, however, favourable rainfall and stored soil moisture at time of planting has supported an above average planted area. Average to above average rainfall throughout spring and a favourable summer rainfall outlook are expected to support above average sorghum yields in New South Wales.

Cotton lint production is forecast to fall by 13% to 680 thousand tonnes in 2024–25 but will remain above the 10-year average to 2023–24 of 519 thousand tonnes. The area planted to cotton is forecast to fall by 9% to 306 thousand hectares in 2024–25. However, this remains 18% above the 10-year average to 2023–24, supported by above average water availability and favourable soil moisture levels. Yields are also expected to remain above the 10-year average to 2023–24 given a favourable summer rainfall outlook.

Rice production is forecast to fall by 28% to 445 thousand tonnes in 2024–25, driven by lower area planted. Lower global prices and reduced general security water allocations are expected to have led to lower rice plantings. A favourable climate outlook for summer is expected to support average yields.

Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Victoria is forecast to fall by 31% to 7.3 million tonnes in 2024–25. This represents a 15% downward revision from the September 2024 Australian Crop Report and is now 8% below the 10-year average to 2023–24. Lower production follows below to very much below average rainfall in northern and western growing regions of Victoria throughout spring.

Growing conditions for winter crops in 2024–25 have been largely unfavourable throughout the season, with persistent dryness limiting yield potential and leading to production downgrades. Lower than expected rainfall and widespread severe frosts in September have also affected crops, with wheat and barley being cut for hay across major cropping zones in the Mallee and Wimmera. Frost affected regions without sufficient biomass to cut for hay have seen fields either left abandoned to maintain groundcover to minimise erosion risk or carried through to harvest with mixed yield outcomes. Above average October rainfall in north central and eastern Mallee cropping regions helped support grain fill and arrested any further yield penalties in those areas.

Victorian wheat production is forecast to fall by 34% in 2024–25, and the average state yield is forecast to be 12% below the 10-year average to 2023–24. Similar production downturns are expected for barley and canola, with frost and water stress also pushing yields below the 10-year average. Lentil production is also forecast to fall by 31% to 535 thousand tonnes in 2024–25, however, remains 58% above the 10-year average to 2023–24, driven by an estimated record area planted of 430 thousand hectares.

The winter crop harvest is now underway in all cropping regions of Victoria. Rainfall in November has slowed the harvest of winter crops in Victoria but has yet to lead to reports of falls in grain quality in unharvested crops. Initial receivals have suggested better-than-expected protein levels for wheat as well as malting percentages for barley given the seasonal conditions.

The Bureau of Meteorology's rainfall outlook for December (issued on 28 November 2024) indicates that rainfall across cropping regions in Victoria is likely to exceed the median. Significant rainfall in December may further delay harvest activity and presents a downside risk to grain quality.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in South Australia is forecast to fall by 35% to 5.6 million tonnes in 2024–25. This represents a 29% downward revision from the September 2024 Australian Crop Report and is now 30% below the 10-year average to 2023–24. Production is forecast to fall in 2024–25 because of below average to very much below average rainfall in the northern cropping regions as well as both the Eyre and Yorke Peninsula of South Australia throughout spring.

Growing conditions for winter crops in 2024–25 have been largely unfavourable across all growing regions within South Australia. Persistent dryness, frosts and isolated hail events throughout the growing season have all limited yield potential and led to production downgrades. Crop growth and development was also hindered by warm winter conditions which reduced soil moisture levels faster than usual. Below average to very much below average rainfall totals across all cropping regions in September also contributed to production downgrades with crops also affected by frost being cut for hay across the Eyre Peninsula and northern districts. Similar to other areas affected by frost and water stress, paddocks without sufficient biomass to cut for hay were either abandoned to preserve groundcover to minimise erosion risk or carried through to harvest with severe yield penalties.

South Australian wheat production is forecast to fall by 38% in 2024–25, with the average state yield forecast to be 37% below the 10-year average to 2023–24. Barley and canola yields are forecast to be 25% and 28% below the 10-year average respectively. Lentil production is also falling year-on-year, however, is expected to remain 29% above the 10-year average because of increased plantings across the Eyre Peninsula.

The winter crop harvest is now underway across South Australia under mixed conditions. Heavy rainfall in the northern and central areas slowed progress, whilst southern coastal regions also experienced light showers constraining harvest activities. The Bureau of Meteorology's rainfall outlook for December (issued on 28 November 2024) indicates that rainfall across cropping regions in South Australia is likely to exceed the median in December. The prospect of above median rainfall in December across most grain-growing regions will continue to influence harvest progress and the quality of grain harvested. Weather permitting, harvest is expected to be completed faster than usual given the relatively small size of the winter crop.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Western Australia is forecast to rise by 31% to 19.4 million tonnes in 2024–25, the third highest value on record. This represents a 6% upward revision from the September 2024 Australian Crop Report and is now 13% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 of 17.2 million tonnes.

Following unfavourably dry and hot conditions at the start of the winter cropping season, growing conditions in Western Australia improved significantly with timely winter rainfall, particularly across northern cropping regions. Nonetheless, below average rainfall in some cropping regions led to crops experiencing moisture stress, and in some areas, heat shock. Despite below average spring rainfall across southern growing regions in Western Australia, most regions received sufficient rainfall during the critical grain fill windows to support above average yields and production.

Wheat production in Western Australia is forecast to rebound by 40% in 2024–25, mainly driven by higher yields, which are expected to increase by 37% on average. Higher yields are mainly the result of improved conditions in central and northern cropping regions, where the majority of wheat is grown in Western Australia. Barley production is also expected to increase in 2024–25. The average state yield for barley is forecast to be 9% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. Despite an estimated fall in area planted, canola production is also forecast to increase in 2024–25 because of higher yields.

The 2024–25 winter crop harvest in Western Australia has been progressing at a fast pace as a result of the dry finish to the season and below average rainfall in early November. Yields are reportedly better than expected, however, high screenings are likely to reduce receivals of premium grade wheat and barley. Rainfall in mid-November caused some harvesting delays across most cropping regions. According to the latest rainfall outlook for December, issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 28 November 2024, rainfall totals are expected to be below 25 millimetres for cropping regions in Western Australia. This should allow for the harvesting of winter crops to progress with minimal interruption.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES